Identification

Title

Atmospheric predictability of the tropics, middle latitudes, and polar regions explored through global storm-resolving simulations

Abstract

The predictability of the atmosphere has important implications for weather prediction, because it determines what forecast problems are potentially tractable. Even though our general understanding of error growth and predictability has been increasing, relatively little is known about the detailed structure of atmospheric predictability, such as how it varies between climate regions. The present study addresses this issue by exploring error growth and predictability in three latitude zones, using model output from a previous global storm-resolving predictability experiment by Judt published in 2018. It was determined that the tropics have longer predictability than the middle latitudes and polar regions (tropics, >20 days; middle latitudes and polar regions, a little over 2 weeks). Each latitude zone had distinct error growth characteristics, and error growth was broadly consistent with the underlying dynamics of each zone. Evidence suggests that equatorial waves play a role in the comparatively long predictability of the tropics; specifically, equatorial waves seem to be less prone to error growth than middle-latitude baroclinic disturbances. Even though the generality of the findings needs to be assessed in future studies, the overall conclusions agree with previous work in that current numerical weather prediction procedures have not reached the limits of atmospheric predictability, especially in the tropics. One way to exploit tropical predictability is to reduce model error, for example, by using global storm-resolving models instead of conventional models that parameterize convection.

Resource type

document

Resource locator

Unique resource identifier

code

http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7g73hww

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

geoscientificInformation

Keywords

Keyword set

keyword value

Text

originating controlled vocabulary

title

Resource Type

reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

Geographic location

West bounding longitude

East bounding longitude

North bounding latitude

South bounding latitude

Temporal reference

Temporal extent

Begin position

End position

Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2020-01-01T00:00:00Z

Frequency of update

Quality and validity

Lineage

Conformity

Data format

name of format

version of format

Constraints related to access and use

Constraint set

Use constraints

Limitations on public access

None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact