Identification

Title

When is a trend meaningful? Insights to carbon cycle variability from an initial-condition large ensemble

Abstract

<p><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);color:rgb(34, 34, 34);display:inline !important;float:none;font-family:-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Oxygen-Sans, Ubuntu, Cantarell, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif;font-size:18px;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-align:start;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;">Internal climate variability (ICV) creates a range of climate trajectories, which are superimposed upon the forced response. A single climate model realization may not represent forced change alone and may diverge from other realizations, as well as observations, due to ICV. We use an initial-condition large ensemble of simulations with the Community Earth System Model (CESM2) to show that ICV produces a range of outcomes in the terrestrial carbon cycle. Trends in gross primary production (GPP) from 1991 to 2020 differ among ensemble members due to the different climate trajectories resulting from ICV. We quantify how ICV imparts on GPP trends and apply our methodology to the observational record. Observed changes in GPP at two long-running eddy covariance flux towers are consistent with ICV, challenging the understanding of forced changes in the carbon cycle at these locations. A probabilistic framework that accounts for ICV is needed to interpret carbon cycle trends.</span></p>

Resource type

document

Resource locator

Unique resource identifier

code

https://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d75143kd

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

geoscientificInformation

Keywords

Keyword set

keyword value

Text

originating controlled vocabulary

title

Resource Type

reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

Geographic location

West bounding longitude

East bounding longitude

North bounding latitude

South bounding latitude

Temporal reference

Temporal extent

Begin position

End position

Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2024-12-01T00:00:00Z

Frequency of update

Quality and validity

Lineage

Conformity

Data format

name of format

version of format

Constraints related to access and use

Constraint set

Use constraints

Limitations on public access

None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact