Identification

Title

A method for probability matching based on the ensemble maximum for quantitative precipitation forecasts

Abstract

A probability matching (PM) product using the ensemble maximum (EnMax) as the basis for spatial reassignment was developed. This PM product was called the PM max and its localized version was called the local PM (LPM) max. Both products were generated from a 10-member ensemble with 3-km horizontal grid spacing and evaluated over 364 36-h forecasts in terms of the fractions skill score. Performances of the PM max and LPM max were compared to those of the traditional PM mean and LPM mean, which both used the ensemble mean (EnMean) as the basis for spatial reassignment. Compared to observations, the PM max typically outperformed the PM mean for precipitation rates >= 5mm h(-1) ; this improvement was related to the EnMax, which had better spatial placement than the EnMean for heavy precipitation. However, the PM mean produced better forecasts than the PM max for lighter precipitation. It appears that the global reassignment used to produce the PM max was responsible for its poorer performance relative to the PM mean at light precipitation rates, as the LPM max was more skillful than the LPM mean at all thresholds. These results suggest promise for PM products based on the EnMax, especially for rare events and ensembles with insufficient spread.

Resource type

document

Resource locator

Unique resource identifier

code

http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7vx0kt0

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

geoscientificInformation

Keywords

Keyword set

keyword value

Text

originating controlled vocabulary

title

Resource Type

reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

Geographic location

West bounding longitude

East bounding longitude

North bounding latitude

South bounding latitude

Temporal reference

Temporal extent

Begin position

End position

Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2020-08-01T00:00:00Z

Frequency of update

Quality and validity

Lineage

Conformity

Data format

name of format

version of format

Constraints related to access and use

Constraint set

Use constraints

Limitations on public access

None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact