Identification

Title

A pause in the weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation since the early 2010s

Abstract

The current state-of-the-art climate models when combined together suggest that the anthropogenic weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) has already begun since the mid-1980s. However, continuous direct observational records during the past two decades have shown remarkable resilience of the AMOC. To shed light on this apparent contradiction, here we attempt to attribute the interdecadal variation of the historical AMOC to the anthropogenic and natural signals, by analyzing multiple climate and surface-forced ocean model simulations together with direct observational data. Our analysis suggests that an extensive weakening of the AMOC occurred in the 2000s, as evident from the surface-forced ocean model simulations, and was primarily driven by anthropogenic forcing and possibly augmented by natural variability. However, since the early 2010s, the natural component of the AMOC has greatly strengthened due to the development of a strong positive North Atlantic Oscillation. The enhanced natural AMOC signal in turn acted to oppose the anthropogenic weakening signal, leading to a near stalling of the AMOC weakening. Further analysis suggests that the tug-of-war between the natural and anthropogenic signals will likely continue in the next several years.

Resource type

document

Resource locator

Unique resource identifier

code

https://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7445rth

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

geoscientificInformation

Keywords

Keyword set

keyword value

Text

originating controlled vocabulary

title

Resource Type

reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

Geographic location

West bounding longitude

East bounding longitude

North bounding latitude

South bounding latitude

Temporal reference

Temporal extent

Begin position

End position

Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2024-12-01T00:00:00Z

Frequency of update

Quality and validity

Lineage

Conformity

Data format

name of format

version of format

Constraints related to access and use

Constraint set

Use constraints

<span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:10pt;font-style:normal;" data-sheets-root="1">Copyright author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.</span>

Limitations on public access

None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact