Identification

Title

Physically-based landfalling tropical cyclone scenarios in support of risk assessment

Abstract

Populations and property values are increasing in tropical cyclone prone regions, driving up repair and replacement costs following a tropical cyclone impact. Climate change influences on tropical cyclones and sea levels will only exacerbate these rises. For example, Australia's Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie in 2017 was one of the most destructive cyclones to make landfall in Australia since Tropical Cyclone Tracy in 1974. The primary impacts of Cyclone Debbie were due to extreme short duration intense wind driven rainfall and widespread major flooding, both linked to uncharacteristically warm sea surface temperatures. Studying the impact of climate change on tropical cyclones is limited by the lack of well observed historical events. Traditional hazard risk assessment approaches are limited since they are primarily based on statistical models which only deal with single meteorological hazards, or use simplified parameterized relationships when more than one phenomenon is included. Here we explore the value of dynamical models for creating targeted, detailed, and physically plausible multi-hazard tropical cyclone scenarios, through the development of a modeling system that i) retains a high degree of simulation control, ii) is globally applicable, and iii) is responsive to climate variability and change. Application of the modeling system to a thermodynamic climate change scenario finds that the tropical cyclone penetrates much further inland with a marked expansion of the heavy rainfall area, resulting in significantly larger areas subjected to damaging and destructive wind speeds and rainfall totals capable of producing flash and riverine flooding.

Resource type

document

Resource locator

Unique resource identifier

code

https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7hd7ztx

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

geoscientificInformation

Keywords

Keyword set

keyword value

Text

originating controlled vocabulary

title

Resource Type

reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

Geographic location

West bounding longitude

East bounding longitude

North bounding latitude

South bounding latitude

Temporal reference

Temporal extent

Begin position

End position

Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2019-12-01T00:00:00Z

Frequency of update

Quality and validity

Lineage

Conformity

Data format

name of format

version of format

Constraints related to access and use

Constraint set

Use constraints

Limitations on public access

None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact