NCAR’s experimental real-time convection-allowing ensemble prediction system

This expository paper documents an experimental, real-time, 10-member, 3-km, convection-allowing ensemble prediction system (EPS) developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in spring 2015. The EPS is particularly unique in that continuously cycling, limited-area, mesoscale ensemble Kalman filter analyses provide diverse initial conditions. In addition to describing the EPS configurations, initial forecast assessments are presented that suggest the EPS can provide valuable severe weather guidance and skillful predictions of precipitation. The EPS output is available to operational forecasters, many of whom have incorporated the products into their toolboxes. Given such rapid embrace of an experimental system by the operational community, acceleration of convection-allowing EPS development is encouraged.

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Author Schwartz, Craig
Romine, Glen
Sobash, Ryan
Fossell, Kathryn
Weisman, Morris
Publisher UCAR/NCAR - Library
Publication Date 2015-12-01T00:00:00
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Topic Category geoscientificInformation
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Metadata Date 2023-08-18T18:25:43.009493
Metadata Record Identifier edu.ucar.opensky::articles:17815
Metadata Language eng; USA
Suggested Citation Schwartz, Craig, Romine, Glen, Sobash, Ryan, Fossell, Kathryn, Weisman, Morris. (2015). NCAR’s experimental real-time convection-allowing ensemble prediction system. UCAR/NCAR - Library. http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7d79cxb. Accessed 25 June 2025.

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