Demonstration of a nowcasting service for High Ice Water Content (HIWC) conditions

Areas of high ice water content (HIWC) within cloud systems may cause power loss events and engine damage in jet aircraft due to ice crystal icing (ICI). The Algorithm for Prediction of HIWC Areas (ALPHA) was developed to identify these regions and enable provision of guidance to airlines. ALPHA combines numerical weather prediction model data, satellite data, and radar data (where available), and applies fuzzy logic to identify the likely presence of HIWC. In a collaboration between the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, U.S. Federal Aviation Administration, and Australian airlines, a trial of ALPHA was conducted for an area across Indonesia, Papua New Guinea (PNG), and northern Australia, a region with frequent deep convection and a relatively high incidence of ICI events. ALPHA was adapted to ingest data from the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator model and the Japanese Himawari-8 geostationary meteorological satellite. Radar data was not used. The HIWC product was made available to stakeholder groups for evaluation. Independent validation of the HIWC product was undertaken by comparing it with retrieved profiles of ice water content (IWC) from the cloud profiling radar on the NASA polar-orbiting CloudSat satellite. Conduct of the ALPHA trial and results from validation of the HIWC product provides confidence in the potential utility for flight planning, maintaining situational awareness, and flight monitoring.