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Decadal prediction: Can it be skillful?
A new field of study, "decadal prediction," is emerging in climate science. Decadal prediction lies between seasonal/interannual forecasting and longer-term climate change...- publication PDF
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Improved short-term variability in the...
We report on a new source of tidal variability in the National Center for Atmospheric Research thermosphere-ionosphere-mesosphere-electrodynamics general circulation model...- publication PDF
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When will humanity notice its influence on Atmospheric Rivers?
Quantifying the response of atmospheric rivers (ARs) to radiative forcing is challenging due to uncertainties caused by internal climate variability, differences in shared...- publication PDF
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ENSO's changing influence on temperature, precipitation, and wildfire in a...
On interannual to decadal time scales, the climate mode with many of the strongest societal impacts is the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, quantifying ENSO's...- publication PDF
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Power laws and inverse motion modelling: Application to turbulence...
In the context of tackling the ill-posed inverse problem of motion estimation from image sequences, we propose to introduce prior knowledge on flow regularity given by...- publication PDF
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The art and science of climate model tuning
The process of parameter estimation targeting a chosen set of observations is an essential aspect of numerical modeling. This process is usually named tuning in the climate...- publication PDF
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Partitioning uncertainty in ocean carbon uptake projections: Internal...
We quantify and isolate the sources of projection uncertainty in annual-mean sea-air CO2 flux over the period 2006-2080 on global and regional scales using output from two sets...- publication PDF
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Data assimilation: A fully nonlinear approach to ensemble formation using...
Operational forecasting with simulation models involves the melding of observations and model dynamics to determine a set of initial conditions for each forecast. The Kalman...- publication PDF
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Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison...
The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) defines and coordinates the main set of future climate projections, based on concentration-driven simulations, within...- publication PDF
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Running dry: The U.S. Southwest's drift into a drier climate state
Changes in precipitation have far-reaching consequences on human society and ecosystems as has been demonstrated by recent severe droughts in California and the Oklahoma region....- publication PDF
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Contrasting impacts of urban forms on the future thermal environment:...
This study investigated impacts of urban forms on the future thermal environment over Beijing, the capital city of China. Beijing is experiencing remarkable urban expansion and...- publication PDF
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Observational constraints on the formation of Cl2 from the reactive uptake...
We use observations from the 2015 Wintertime Investigation of Transport, Emissions, and Reactivity (WINTER) aircraft campaign to constrain the proposed mechanism of Cl-2...- publication PDF
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Broadening of modeled cloud droplet spectra using bin microphysics in an...
This study investigates droplet size distribution (DSD) characteristics from condensational growth and transport in Eulerian dynamical models with bin microphysics. A hierarchy...- publication PDF
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Evaluation of Noah‐MP performance with available soil information for...
The increasing availability of modern digital soil databases provides an opportunity to integrate these data into land surface models (LSMs), such as Noah‐MP, for a more...- publication PDF
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Validation of mountain precipitation forecasts from the...
Convection-permitting ensembles can capture the large spatial variability and quantify the inherent uncertainty of precipitation in areas of complex terrain; however, such...- publication PDF
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The role of snowmelt temporal pattern in flood estimation for a small...
Prior research confirmed the substantial bias from using precipitation-based intensity-duration-frequency curves (PREC-IDF) in design flood estimates and proposed next-...- publication PDF
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Using random forests to diagnose aviation turbulence
Atmospheric turbulence poses a significant hazard to aviation, with severe encounters costing airlines millions of dollars per year in compensation, aircraft damage, and delays...- publication PDF
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Diagnosing the influence of a receding snow boundary on simulated...
Previous research has found a relationship between the equatorward extent of snow cover and low-level baroclinicity, suggesting a link between the development and trajectory of...- publication PDF
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Generation of turbulence through frontogenesis in sheared stratified flows
The large-scale structures in the ocean and the atmosphere are in geostrophic balance, and a conduit must be found to channel the energy to the small scales where it can be...- publication PDF
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Global environmental change perspectives on Integrated, Coordinated, Open,...
This article is composed of two independent commentaries about the state of Integrated, Coordinated, Open, Networked (ICON) principles (Goldman et al., 2021, ) in Global...- publication PDF
