Attributing extreme events to climate change: A new frontier in a warming world

The emerging field of extreme-event attribution (EEA) seeks to answer the question: “Has climate change influenced the frequency, likelihood, and/or severity of individual extreme events?” Methodological advances over the past 15 years have transformed what was once an unanswerable hypothetical into a tractable scientific question—and for certain types of extreme events, the influence of anthropogenic climate change has emerged beyond a reasonable doubt. Several challenges remain, particularly those stemming from structural limitations in process-based climate models and the temporal and geographic limitations of historical observations. However, the growing use of large climate-model ensembles that capture natural climate variability, fine-scale simulations that better represent underlying physical processes, and the lengthening observational record could obviate some of these concerns in the near future. EEA efforts have important implications for risk perception, public policy, infrastructure design, legal liability, and climate adaptation in a warming world.

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Author Swain, Daniel L.
Singh, Deepti
Touma, Danielle
Diffenbaugh, Noah S.
Publisher UCAR/NCAR - Library
Publication Date 2020-06-01T00:00:00
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Topic Category geoscientificInformation
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Metadata Date 2023-08-18T18:29:22.328562
Metadata Record Identifier edu.ucar.opensky::articles:24360
Metadata Language eng; USA
Suggested Citation Swain, Daniel L., Singh, Deepti, Touma, Danielle, Diffenbaugh, Noah S.. (2020). Attributing extreme events to climate change: A new frontier in a warming world. UCAR/NCAR - Library. http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7qj7mp7. Accessed 21 July 2025.

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