The operational mesogamma-scale analysis and forecast system of the U.S. army test and evaluation command. Part II: Inter-range comparison of the accuracy of model analyses and forecasts

This study builds upon previous efforts to document the performance of the U.S. Army Test and Evaluation Command’s Four-Dimensional Weather Modeling System using conventional metrics. Winds, temperature, and specific humidity were verified for almost 15 000 forecasts at five U.S. Army test ranges using near-surface mesonet data. The primary objective was to use conventional metrics to characterize the degree to which forecast accuracy varies from range to range, within the diurnal cycle, with elapsed forecast time, and among the seasons. It was found that there are large interrange differences in forecast error, with larger errors typically associated with the ranges located near complex orography. Similarly, significant variations in accuracy were noted for different times in the diurnal cycle, but the diurnal dependency varied greatly among the ranges. Factor of 2 differences in accuracy were also found across the seasons.

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Copyright 2007 American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be "fair use" under Section 107 or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Law (17 USC, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the Society's permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form on servers, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statements, requires written permission or license from the AMS. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policies, available from the AMS at 617-227-2425 or amspubs@ametsoc.org. Permission to place a copy of this work on this server has been provided by the AMS. The AMS does not guarantee that the copy provided here is an accurate copy of the published work.
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Author Liu, Y.
Warner, T.
Astling, E.
Bowers, J.
Davis, C.
Halvorson, Scott
Rife, Daran
Sheu, Rong-Shyang
Swerdlin, Scott
Xu, Mei
Publisher UCAR/NCAR - Library
Publication Date 2008-04-01T00:00:00
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Topic Category geoscientificInformation
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Metadata Date 2023-08-18T18:42:21.900116
Metadata Record Identifier edu.ucar.opensky::articles:6167
Metadata Language eng; USA
Suggested Citation Liu, Y., Warner, T., Astling, E., Bowers, J., Davis, C., Halvorson, Scott, Rife, Daran, Sheu, Rong-Shyang, Swerdlin, Scott, Xu, Mei. (2008). The operational mesogamma-scale analysis and forecast system of the U.S. army test and evaluation command. Part II: Inter-range comparison of the accuracy of model analyses and forecasts. UCAR/NCAR - Library. http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7jw8f2c. Accessed 29 June 2025.

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