Retrospective analysis of 2015–2017 wintertime PM2.5 in China: Response to emission regulations and the role of meteorology

To better characterize anthropogenic emission-relevant aerosol species, the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) and Weather Research and Forecasting with Chemistry (WRF/Chem) data assimilation system was updated from the GOCART aerosol scheme to the Model for Simulating Aerosol Interactions and Chemistry (MOSAIC) 4-bin (MOSAIC-4BIN) aerosol scheme. Three years (20152017) of wintertime (January) surface PM2.5 (fine particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter smaller than 2.5 pm) observations from more than 1600 sites were assimilated hourly using the updated three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) system. In the control experiment (without assimilation) using Multi-resolution Emission Inventory for China 2010 (MEIC_2010) emissions, the modeled January averaged PM2.5 concentrations were severely overestimated in the Sichuan Basin, central China, the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta by 98-134, 46-101, 32-59 and 19-60 mu g m(-3), respectively, indicating that the emissions for 2010 are not appropriate for 2015-2017, as strict emission control strategies were implemented in recent years. Meanwhile, underestimations of 11-12, 53-96 and 22-40 mu g m(-3) were observed in northeastern China, Xinjiang and the Energy Golden Triangle, respectively. The assimilation experiment significantly reduced both high and low biases to within +/- 5 mu g m(-3).