Projected future changes in tropical cyclones using the CMIP6 HIGHRESMIP multimodel ensemble

Future changes in tropical cyclone properties are an important component of climate change impacts and risk for many tropical and midlatitude countries. In this study we assess the performance of a multimodel ensemble of climate models, at resolutions ranging from 250 to 25 km. We use a common experimental design including both atmosphere-only and coupled simulations run over the period 1950-2050, with two tracking algorithms applied uniformly across the models. There are overall improvements in tropical cyclone frequency, spatial distribution, and intensity in models at 25 km resolution, with several of them able to represent very intense storms. Projected tropical cyclone activity by 2050 generally declines in the South Indian Ocean, while changes in other ocean basins are more uncertain and sensitive to both tracking algorithm and imposed forcings. Coupled models with smaller biases suggest a slight increase in average TC 10 m wind speeds by 2050.

To Access Resource:

Questions? Email Resource Support Contact:

  • opensky@ucar.edu
    UCAR/NCAR - Library

Resource Type publication
Temporal Range Begin N/A
Temporal Range End N/A
Temporal Resolution N/A
Bounding Box North Lat N/A
Bounding Box South Lat N/A
Bounding Box West Long N/A
Bounding Box East Long N/A
Spatial Representation N/A
Spatial Resolution N/A
Related Links N/A
Additional Information N/A
Resource Format PDF
Standardized Resource Format PDF
Asset Size N/A
Legal Constraints

Copyright author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
Access Constraints None
Software Implementation Language N/A

Resource Support Name N/A
Resource Support Email opensky@ucar.edu
Resource Support Organization UCAR/NCAR - Library
Distributor N/A
Metadata Contact Name N/A
Metadata Contact Email opensky@ucar.edu
Metadata Contact Organization UCAR/NCAR - Library

Author Roberts, Malcolm John
Camp, Joanne
Seddon, Jon
Vidale, Pier Luigi
Hodges, Kevin
Vannière, Benoît
Mecking, Jenny
Haarsma, Rein
Bellucci, Alessio
Scoccimarro, Enrico
Caron, Louis‐Philippe
Chauvin, Fabrice
Terray, Laurent
Valcke, Sophie
Moine, Marie‐Pierre
Putrasahan, Dian
Roberts, Christopher D.
Senan, Retish
Zarzycki, Colin
Ullrich, Paul
Yamada, Yohei
Mizuta, Ryo
Kodama, Chihiro
Fu, Dan
Zhang, Qiuying
Danabasoglu, Gokhan
Rosenbloom, Nan
Wang, Hong
Wu, Lixin
Publisher UCAR/NCAR - Library
Publication Date 2020-07-28T00:00:00
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) Not Assigned
Alternate Identifier N/A
Resource Version N/A
Topic Category geoscientificInformation
Progress N/A
Metadata Date 2023-08-18T18:15:41.283088
Metadata Record Identifier edu.ucar.opensky::articles:23545
Metadata Language eng; USA
Suggested Citation Roberts, Malcolm John, Camp, Joanne, Seddon, Jon, Vidale, Pier Luigi, Hodges, Kevin, Vannière, Benoît, Mecking, Jenny, Haarsma, Rein, Bellucci, Alessio, Scoccimarro, Enrico, Caron, Louis‐Philippe, Chauvin, Fabrice, Terray, Laurent, Valcke, Sophie, Moine, Marie‐Pierre, Putrasahan, Dian, Roberts, Christopher D., Senan, Retish, Zarzycki, Colin, Ullrich, Paul, Yamada, Yohei, Mizuta, Ryo, Kodama, Chihiro, Fu, Dan, Zhang, Qiuying, Danabasoglu, Gokhan, Rosenbloom, Nan, Wang, Hong, Wu, Lixin. (2020). Projected future changes in tropical cyclones using the CMIP6 HIGHRESMIP multimodel ensemble. UCAR/NCAR - Library. http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7sq93np. Accessed 25 June 2025.

Harvest Source