Ensemble forecasts of air quality in eastern China – Part 1: Model description and implementation of the MarcoPolo–Panda prediction system, version 1

An operational multi-model forecasting system for air quality including nine different chemical transport models has been developed and provides daily forecasts of ozone, nitrogen oxides, and particulate matter for the 37 largest urban areas of China (population higher than 3 million in 2010). These individual forecasts as well as the mean and median concentrations for the next 3 days are displayed on a publicly accessible website (http://www.marcopolo-panda. eu, last access: 7 December 2018). The paper describes the forecasting system and shows some selected illustrative examples of air quality predictions. It presents an intercomparison of the different forecasts performed during a given period of time (1-15 March 2017) and highlights recurrent differences between the model output as well as systematic biases that appear in the median concentration values. Pathways to improve the forecasts by the multi-model system are suggested.

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Author Brasseur, Guy P.
Xie, Ying
Petersen, Anna Katinka
Bouarar, Idir
Flemming, Johannes
Gauss, Michael
Jiang, Fei
Kouznetsov, Rostislav
Kranenburg, Richard
Mijling, Bas
Peuch, Vincent-Henri
Pommier, Matthieu
Segers, Arjo
Sofiev, Mikhail
Timmermans, Renske
van der A, Ronald
Walters, Stacy
Xu, Jianming
Zhou, Guangqiang
Publisher UCAR/NCAR - Library
Publication Date 2019-01-03T00:00:00
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) Not Assigned
Alternate Identifier N/A
Resource Version N/A
Topic Category geoscientificInformation
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Metadata Date 2023-08-18T19:19:17.301307
Metadata Record Identifier edu.ucar.opensky::articles:22263
Metadata Language eng; USA
Suggested Citation Brasseur, Guy P., Xie, Ying, Petersen, Anna Katinka, Bouarar, Idir, Flemming, Johannes, Gauss, Michael, Jiang, Fei, Kouznetsov, Rostislav, Kranenburg, Richard, Mijling, Bas, Peuch, Vincent-Henri, Pommier, Matthieu, Segers, Arjo, Sofiev, Mikhail, Timmermans, Renske, van der A, Ronald, Walters, Stacy, Xu, Jianming, Zhou, Guangqiang. (2019). Ensemble forecasts of air quality in eastern China – Part 1: Model description and implementation of the MarcoPolo–Panda prediction system, version 1. UCAR/NCAR - Library. http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7xg9v5b. Accessed 19 June 2025.

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