A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: Scenario matrix architecture

This paper describes the scenario matrix architecture that underlies a framework for developing new scenarios for climate change research. The matrix architecture facilitates addressing key questions related to current climate research and policy-making: identifying the effectiveness of different adaptation and mitigation strategies (in terms of their costs, risks and other consequences) and the possible trade-offs and synergies. The two main axes of the matrix are: 1) the level of radiative forcing of the climate system (as characterised by the representative concentration pathways) and 2) a set of alternative plausible trajectories of future global development (described as shared socio-economic pathways). The matrix can be used to guide scenario development at different scales. It can also be used as a heuristic tool for classifying new and existing scenarios for assessment. Key elements of the architecture, in particular the shared socio-economic pathways and shared policy assumptions (devices for incorporating explicit mitigation and adaptation policies), are elaborated in other papers in this special issue.

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Author van Vuuren, Detlef
Kriegler, Elmar
O'Neill, Brian
Ebi, Kristie
Riahi, Keywan
Carter, Timothy
Edmonds, Jae
Hallegatte, Stephane
Kram, Tom
Mathur, Ritu
Winkler, Harald
Publisher UCAR/NCAR - Library
Publication Date 2014-02-01T00:00:00
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Topic Category geoscientificInformation
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Metadata Date 2023-08-18T18:54:38.577019
Metadata Record Identifier edu.ucar.opensky::articles:13271
Metadata Language eng; USA
Suggested Citation van Vuuren, Detlef, Kriegler, Elmar, O'Neill, Brian, Ebi, Kristie, Riahi, Keywan, Carter, Timothy, Edmonds, Jae, Hallegatte, Stephane, Kram, Tom, Mathur, Ritu, Winkler, Harald. (2014). A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: Scenario matrix architecture. UCAR/NCAR - Library. http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d70r9qb9. Accessed 18 January 2025.

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