A preliminary synthesis of modeled climate change impacts on U.S. regional ozone concentrations

This paper provides a synthesis of results that have emerged from recent modeling studies of the potential sensitivity of U.S. regional ozone (O₃) concentrations to global climate change (ca. 2050). This research has been carried out under the auspices of an ongoing U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) assessment effort to increase scientific understanding of the multiple complex interactions among climate, emissions, atmospheric chemistry, and air quality. The ultimate goal is to enhance the ability of air quality managers to consider global change in their decisions through improved characterization of the potential effects of global change on air quality, including O₃. The results discussed here are interim, representing the first phase of the EPA assessment. The aim in this first phase was to consider the effects of climate change alone on air quality, without accompanying changes in anthropogenic emissions of precursor pollutants. Across all of the modeling experiments carried out by the different groups, simulated global climate change causes increases of a few to several parts per billion (ppb) in summertime mean maximum daily 8-h average O₃ concentrations over substantial regions of the country. The different modeling experiments in general do not, however, simulate the same regional patterns of change. These differences seem to result largely from variations in the simulated patterns of changes in key meteorological drivers, such as temperature and surface insolation. How isoprene nitrate chemistry is represented in the different modeling systems is an additional critical factor in the simulated O₃ response to climate change.

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Author Weaver, C.
Liang, X-Z
Zhu, J.
Adams, P.
Amar, P.
Avise, J.
Caughey, M.
Chen, J.
Cohen, R.
Cooter, E.
Dawson, J.
Gilliam, R.
Gilliland, A.
Goldstein, A.
Grambsch, A.
Grano, D.
Guenther, Alex
Gustafson, W.
Harley, R.
He, S.
Hemming, B.
Hogrefe, C.
Huang, H-C
Hunt, S.
Jacob, D.
Kinney, P.
Kunkel, K.
Lamarque, Jean-Francois
Lamb, B.
Larkin, N.
Leung, L.
Liao, K.-J
Lin, J.-T
Lynn, B.
Manomai phi boon, K.
Mass, C.
McKenzie, D.
Mickley, L.
O’Neill, S.
Nolte, C.
Pandis, S.
Racherla, P.
Rosenzweig, C.
Russell, A.
Salathé, E.
Steiner, A.
Tagaris, E.
Tao, Z.
Tonse, S.
Wiedinmyer, Christine
Williams, A.
Winner, D.
Woo, J.-H
Wu, S.
Wuebbles, D.
Publisher UCAR/NCAR - Library
Publication Date 2009-12-17T00:00:00
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) Not Assigned
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Topic Category geoscientificInformation
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Metadata Date 2023-08-18T18:56:55.095855
Metadata Record Identifier edu.ucar.opensky::articles:15191
Metadata Language eng; USA
Suggested Citation Weaver, C., Liang, X-Z, Zhu, J., Adams, P., Amar, P., Avise, J., Caughey, M., Chen, J., Cohen, R., Cooter, E., Dawson, J., Gilliam, R., Gilliland, A., Goldstein, A., Grambsch, A., Grano, D., Guenther, Alex, Gustafson, W., Harley, R., He, S., Hemming, B., Hogrefe, C., Huang, H-C, Hunt, S., Jacob, D., Kinney, P., Kunkel, K., Lamarque, Jean-Francois, Lamb, B., Larkin, N., Leung, L., Liao, K.-J, Lin, J.-T, Lynn, B., Manomai phi boon, K., Mass, C., McKenzie, D., Mickley, L., O’Neill, S., Nolte, C., Pandis, S., Racherla, P., Rosenzweig, C., Russell, A., Salathé, E., Steiner, A., Tagaris, E., Tao, Z., Tonse, S., Wiedinmyer, Christine, Williams, A., Winner, D., Woo, J.-H, Wu, S., Wuebbles, D.. (2009). A preliminary synthesis of modeled climate change impacts on U.S. regional ozone concentrations. UCAR/NCAR - Library. http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7qn67sp. Accessed 29 June 2025.

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