A weather and climate enterprise strategic implementation plan for generating and communicating forecast uncertainty information

The American Meteorological Society (AMS) Weather and Climate Enterprise Strategic Implementation Plan for Generating and Communicating Forecast Uncertainty (the Plan) is summarized. The Plan is based on and intended to provide a foundation for implementing recent recommendations regarding forecast uncertainty by the National Research Council (NRC), AMS, and World Meteorological Organization. It defines a vision, strategic goals, roles and respon- sibilities, and an implementation road map to guide the weather and climate enterprise (the Enterprise) toward routinely providing the nation with comprehensive, skillful, reliable, and useful information about the uncertainty of weather, water, and climate (hydrometeorological) forecasts. Examples are provided describing how hydrometeorological forecast uncertainty information can improve decisions and outcomes in various socioeconomic areas. The implementation road map defines objectives and tasks that the four sectors comprising the Enterprise (i.e., government, industry, academia, and nongovernmental organizations) should work on in partnership to meet four key, interrelated strategic goals: 1) understand social and physical science aspects of forecast uncertainty; 2) communicate forecast uncertainty information effectively and collaborate with users to assist them in their decision making; 3) generate forecast uncertainty data, products, services, and information; and 4) enable research, development, and operations with necessary information technology and other infrastructure. The Plan endorses the NRC recommendation that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and, in particular, the National Weather Service, should take the lead in motivating and organizing Enterprise resources and expertise in order to reach the Plan's vision and goals and shift the nation successfully toward a greater understanding and use of forecast uncertainty in decision making.

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Author Hirschberg, Paul
Abrams, Elliot
Bleistein, Andrea
Bua, William
Delle Monache, Luca
Dulong, Thomas
Gaynor, John
Glahn, Bob
Hamill, Thomas
Hansen, James
Hilderbrand, Douglas
Hoffman, Ross
Morrow, Betty
Philips, Brenda
Sokich, John
Stuart, Neil
Publisher UCAR/NCAR - Library
Publication Date 2011-12-01T00:00:00
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) Not Assigned
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Topic Category geoscientificInformation
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Metadata Date 2023-08-18T18:55:09.189471
Metadata Record Identifier edu.ucar.opensky::articles:12099
Metadata Language eng; USA
Suggested Citation Hirschberg, Paul, Abrams, Elliot, Bleistein, Andrea, Bua, William, Delle Monache, Luca, Dulong, Thomas, Gaynor, John, Glahn, Bob, Hamill, Thomas, Hansen, James, Hilderbrand, Douglas, Hoffman, Ross, Morrow, Betty, Philips, Brenda, Sokich, John, Stuart, Neil. (2011). A weather and climate enterprise strategic implementation plan for generating and communicating forecast uncertainty information. UCAR/NCAR - Library. http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d77m08ps. Accessed 27 July 2025.

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