Arctic sea ice simulation in the PlioMIP ensemble

Eight general circulation models have simulated the mid-Pliocene warm period (mid-Pliocene, 3.264 to 3.025 Ma) as part of the Pliocene Modelling Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP). Here, we analyse and compare their simulation of Arctic sea ice for both the pre-industrial period and the mid-Pliocene. Mid-Pliocene sea ice thickness and extent is reduced, and the model spread of extent is more than twice the pre-industrial spread in some summer months. Half of the PlioMIP models simulate ice-free conditions in the mid-Pliocene. This spread amongst the ensemble is in line with the uncertainties amongst proxy reconstructions for mid-Pliocene sea ice extent. Correlations between mid-Pliocene Arctic temperatures and sea ice extents are almost twice as strong as the equivalent correlations for the pre-industrial simulations. The need for more comprehensive sea ice proxy data is highlighted, in order to better compare model performances.

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Copyright 2016 Authors. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.


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Author Howell, Fergus
Haywood, Alan
Otto-Bliesner, Bette
Bragg, Fran
Chan, Wing-Le
Chandler, Mark
Contoux, Camille
Kamae, Youichi
Abe-Ouchi, Ayako
Rosenbloom, Nan
Stepanek, Christian
Zhang, Zhongshi
Publisher UCAR/NCAR - Library
Publication Date 2016-03-23T00:00:00
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) Not Assigned
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Topic Category geoscientificInformation
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Metadata Date 2023-08-18T19:02:29.982345
Metadata Record Identifier edu.ucar.opensky::articles:18478
Metadata Language eng; USA
Suggested Citation Howell, Fergus, Haywood, Alan, Otto-Bliesner, Bette, Bragg, Fran, Chan, Wing-Le, Chandler, Mark, Contoux, Camille, Kamae, Youichi, Abe-Ouchi, Ayako, Rosenbloom, Nan, Stepanek, Christian, Zhang, Zhongshi. (2016). Arctic sea ice simulation in the PlioMIP ensemble. UCAR/NCAR - Library. http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d78c9xv6. Accessed 12 February 2025.

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