Are multiseasonal forecasts of atmospheric rivers possible?

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) exert significant socioeconomic impacts in western North America, where 30% of the annual precipitation is determined by ARs that occur in less than 15% of wintertime. ARs are thus beneficial to water supply but can produce extreme precipitation hazards when making landfall. While most prevailing research has focused on the subseasonal (= 3 months) that are crucial for water resource management and disaster preparedness. Through the analysis of reanalysis data and retrospective predictions from a new seasonal-to-decadal forecast system, this research shows the existing potential of multiseasonal AR frequency forecasts with predictive skills 9 months in advance. Additional analysis explores the dominant predictability sources and challenges for multiseasonal AR prediction.

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Copyright 2021 American Geophysical Union.


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Author Tseng, Kai�Chih
Johnson, Nathaniel C.
Kapnick, Sarah B.
Delworth, Thomas L.
Lu, Feiyu
Cooke, William
Wittenberg, Andrew T.
Rosati, Anthony J.
Zhang, Liping
McHugh, Colleen
Yang, Xiaosong
Harrison, Matthew
Zeng, Fanrong
Zhang, Gan
Murakami, Hiroyuki
Bushuk, Mitchell
Jia, Liwei
Publisher UCAR/NCAR - Library
Publication Date 2021-09-08T00:00:00
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) Not Assigned
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Topic Category geoscientificInformation
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Metadata Date 2023-08-18T18:33:09.952716
Metadata Record Identifier edu.ucar.opensky::articles:24711
Metadata Language eng; USA
Suggested Citation Tseng, Kai�Chih, Johnson, Nathaniel C., Kapnick, Sarah B., Delworth, Thomas L., Lu, Feiyu, Cooke, William, Wittenberg, Andrew T., Rosati, Anthony J., Zhang, Liping, McHugh, Colleen, Yang, Xiaosong, Harrison, Matthew, Zeng, Fanrong, Zhang, Gan, Murakami, Hiroyuki, Bushuk, Mitchell, Jia, Liwei. (2021). Are multiseasonal forecasts of atmospheric rivers possible?. UCAR/NCAR - Library. http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7qc06zg. Accessed 13 February 2025.

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