Assessment of temperature, trace species, and ozone in chemistry-climate model simulations of the recent past

Simulations of the stratosphere from thirteen coupled chemistry-climate models (CCMs) are evaluated to provide guidance for the interpretation of ozone predictions made by the same CCMs. The focus of the evaluation is on how well the fields and processes that are important for determining the ozone distribution are represented in the simulations of the recent past. The core period of the evaluation is from 1980 to 1999 but long-term trends are compared for an extended period (1960-2004). Comparisons of polar high-latitude temperatures show that most CCMs have only small biases in the Northern Hemisphere in winter and spring, but still have cold biases in the Southern Hemisphere spring below 10 hPa. Most CCMs display the correct stratospheric response of polar temperatures to wave forcing in the Northern, but not in the Southern Hemisphere. Global long-term stratospheric temperature trends are in reasonable agreement with satellite and radiosonde observations. Comparisons of simulations of methane, mean age of air, and propagation of the annual cycle in water vapor show a wide spread in the results, indicating differences in transport. However, for around half the models there is reasonable agreement with observations. In these models the mean age of air and the water vapor tape recorder signal are generally better than reported in previous model intercomparisons. Comparisons of the water vapor and inorganic chlorine (Cly) fields also show a large intermodel spread. Differences in tropical water vapor mixing ratios in the lower stratosphere are primarily related to biases in the simulated tropical tropopause temperatures and not transport. The spread in Cly, which is largest in the polar lower stratosphere, appears to be primarily related to transport differences. In general the amplitude and phase of the annual cycle in total ozone is well simulated apart from the southern high latitudes. Most CCMs show reasonable agreement with observed total ozone trends and variability on a global scale, but a greater spread in the ozone trends in polar regions in spring, especially in the Arctic. In conclusion, despite the wide range of skills in representing different processes assessed here, there is sufficient agreement between the majority of the CCMs and the observations that some confidence can be placed in their predictions.

To Access Resource:

Questions? Email Resource Support Contact:

  • opensky@ucar.edu
    UCAR/NCAR - Library

Resource Type publication
Temporal Range Begin N/A
Temporal Range End N/A
Temporal Resolution N/A
Bounding Box North Lat N/A
Bounding Box South Lat N/A
Bounding Box West Long N/A
Bounding Box East Long N/A
Spatial Representation N/A
Spatial Resolution N/A
Related Links N/A
Additional Information N/A
Resource Format PDF
Standardized Resource Format PDF
Asset Size N/A
Legal Constraints

Copyright 2006 American Geophysical Union.


Access Constraints None
Software Implementation Language N/A

Resource Support Name N/A
Resource Support Email opensky@ucar.edu
Resource Support Organization UCAR/NCAR - Library
Distributor N/A
Metadata Contact Name N/A
Metadata Contact Email opensky@ucar.edu
Metadata Contact Organization UCAR/NCAR - Library

Author Eyring, V.
Butchart, N.
Waugh, D.
Akiyoshi, H.
Austin, J.
Bekki, S.
Bodeker, G.
Boville, Bryon
Bruehl, C.
Chipperfield, M.
Cordero, E.
Dameris, M.
Deushi, M.
Fioletov, V.
Frith, S.
Garcia, Rolando
Gettelman, A.
Giorgetta, M.
Grewe, V.
Jourdain, L.
Kinnison, Douglas
Mancini, E.
Manzini, E.
Marchand, M.
Marsh, Daniel
Nagashima, T.
Newman, P.
Nielsen, J.
Pawson, S.
Pitari, G.
Plummer, D.
Rozanov, E.
Schraner, M.
Shepherd, T.
Shibata, K.
Stolarski, R.
Struthers, H.
Tian, W.
Yoshiki, M.
Publisher UCAR/NCAR - Library
Publication Date 2006-11-23T00:00:00
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) Not Assigned
Alternate Identifier N/A
Resource Version N/A
Topic Category geoscientificInformation
Progress N/A
Metadata Date 2023-08-18T18:38:15.887621
Metadata Record Identifier edu.ucar.opensky::articles:7052
Metadata Language eng; USA
Suggested Citation Eyring, V., Butchart, N., Waugh, D., Akiyoshi, H., Austin, J., Bekki, S., Bodeker, G., Boville, Bryon, Bruehl, C., Chipperfield, M., Cordero, E., Dameris, M., Deushi, M., Fioletov, V., Frith, S., Garcia, Rolando, Gettelman, A., Giorgetta, M., Grewe, V., Jourdain, L., Kinnison, Douglas, Mancini, E., Manzini, E., Marchand, M., Marsh, Daniel, Nagashima, T., Newman, P., Nielsen, J., Pawson, S., Pitari, G., Plummer, D., Rozanov, E., Schraner, M., Shepherd, T., Shibata, K., Stolarski, R., Struthers, H., Tian, W., Yoshiki, M.. (2006). Assessment of temperature, trace species, and ozone in chemistry-climate model simulations of the recent past. UCAR/NCAR - Library. http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d77081q5. Accessed 11 February 2025.

Harvest Source