Attribution of multi-annual to decadal changes in the climate system: The Large Ensemble Single Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (LESFMIP)

Multi-annual to decadal changes in climate are accompanied by changes in extreme events that cause major impacts on society and severe challenges for adaptation. Early warnings of such changes are now potentially possible through operational decadal predictions. However, improved understanding of the causes of regional changes in climate on these timescales is needed both to attribute recent events and to gain further confidence in forecasts. Here we document the Large Ensemble Single Forcing Model Intercomparison Project that will address this need through coordinated model experiments enabling the impacts of different external drivers to be isolated. We highlight the need to account for model errors and propose an attribution approach that exploits differences between models to diagnose the real-world situation and overcomes potential errors in atmospheric circulation changes. The experiments and analysis proposed here will provide substantial improvements to our ability to understand near-term changes in climate and will support the World Climate Research Program Lighthouse Activity on Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change.

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Author Smith, Doug M.
Gillett, Nathan P.
Simpson, Isla R.
Athanasiadis, Panos J.
Baehr, Johanna
Bethke, Ingo
Bilge, Tarkan A.
Bonnet, Rémy
Boucher, Olivier
Findell, Kirsten L.
Gastineau, Guillaume
Gualdi, Silvio
Hermanson, Leon
Leung, L. Ruby
Mignot, Juliette
Müller, Wolfgang A.
Osprey, Scott
Otterå, Odd Helge
Persad, Geeta G.
Scaife, Adam A.
Schmidt, Gavin A.
Shiogama, Hideo
Sutton, Rowan T.
Swingedouw, Didier
Yang, Shuting
Zhou, Tianjun
Ziehn, Tilo
Publisher UCAR/NCAR - Library
Publication Date 2022-09-16T00:00:00
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) Not Assigned
Alternate Identifier N/A
Resource Version N/A
Topic Category geoscientificInformation
Progress N/A
Metadata Date 2023-08-18T18:37:53.052237
Metadata Record Identifier edu.ucar.opensky::articles:26455
Metadata Language eng; USA
Suggested Citation Smith, Doug M., Gillett, Nathan P., Simpson, Isla R., Athanasiadis, Panos J., Baehr, Johanna, Bethke, Ingo, Bilge, Tarkan A., Bonnet, Rémy, Boucher, Olivier, Findell, Kirsten L., Gastineau, Guillaume, Gualdi, Silvio, Hermanson, Leon, Leung, L. Ruby, Mignot, Juliette, Müller, Wolfgang A., Osprey, Scott, Otterå, Odd Helge, Persad, Geeta G., Scaife, Adam A., Schmidt, Gavin A., Shiogama, Hideo, Sutton, Rowan T., Swingedouw, Didier, Yang, Shuting, Zhou, Tianjun, Ziehn, Tilo. (2022). Attribution of multi-annual to decadal changes in the climate system: The Large Ensemble Single Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (LESFMIP). UCAR/NCAR - Library. http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d70r9tdf. Accessed 12 February 2025.

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