Climate information for arbovirus risk monitoring: Opportunities and challenges

Arthropodborne viruses (arboviruses) have presented a health threat to humans throughout history. In recent years, however, high-profile arbovirus introductions and modifications of range areas of susceptibility have raised concern about our ability to anticipate new epidemics and to manage them after onset. These include the expanding threat presented by Lyme disease and West Nile virus in North America, dengue epidemics in cities across the tropics and subtropics, and dramatic outbreaks in the Western Hemisphere, such as that of Chikungunya virus in 2013/14 and the current Zika virus crisis (Ventura et al. 2016). These arboviruses present researchers with a host of complexities, ranging from pathogen genetics to human behavior. Arbovirus dynamics also involve environmental and ecological systems in a manner that often leads to significant climate sensitivity (e.g., Chaves et al. 2012; Naish et al. 2014; Tabachnick 2010). This sensitivity presents opportunities for risk monitoring and early warning systems (Lowe et al. 2014). It also suggests that the range and dynamics of these diseases might be altered by a changing climate (Campbell et al. 2015), alongside changing socioeconomic and environmental conditions.