Computational modeling of large wildfires: A roadmap

Wildland fire behavior, particularly that of large, uncontrolled wildfires, has not been well understood or predicted. Our methodology to simulate this phenomenon use s high-resolution dynamic models made of numerical weather prediction (NWP) mode ls coupled to fire behavior models to simulate fire behavior. NWP mode ls are capable of modeling very high re solution (< 100 m) atmospheric flows. The wildland fire component is based upon semi-empirical formulas for fireline rate of spread, post-frontal heat re lease, and a canopy fire. The fire behavior is coupled to the atmospheric model such that low level winds drive the spread of the surface fire, which in turn releases sensible heat, latent heat, and smoke fluxes into the lower atmosphere, feeding back to affect the winds directing the fire. The se coupled dynamic models capture the rapid spread downwind, flank runs up canyons, bifurcations of the fire into two heads, and rough agreement in area, shape, and direction of spread at periods for which fire location data is available. Ye t, intriguing computational science questions arise in applying such mode ls in a predictive manner, including physical processes that span a vast range of scales, processes such as spotting that cannot be modeled deterministically, estimating the consequences of uncertainty, the efforts to steer simulations with field data ("data assimilation"), lingering issue s with short term forecasting of weather that may show skill only on the order of a few hours, and the difficulty of gathering pertinent data for verification and initialization in a dangerous environment.

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2010 IEEE. Personal use of this material is permitted. Permission from IEEE must be obtained for all other users, including reprinting/ republishing this material for advertising or promotional purposes, creating new collective works for resale or redistribution to servers or lists, or reuse of any copyrighted components of this work in other works.


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Author Coen, Janice
Douglas, Craig
Publisher UCAR/NCAR - Library
Publication Date 2010-08-31T00:00:00
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Topic Category geoscientificInformation
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Metadata Date 2023-08-18T19:02:23.655049
Metadata Record Identifier edu.ucar.opensky::articles:18989
Metadata Language eng; USA
Suggested Citation Coen, Janice, Douglas, Craig. (2010). Computational modeling of large wildfires: A roadmap. UCAR/NCAR - Library. http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7h41t48. Accessed 15 February 2025.

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