Coupled chemistry climate model simulations of stratospheric temperatures and their trends for the recent past

Temperature results from multi-decadal simulations of coupled chemistry climate models for the recent past are analyzed using multi-linear regression including a trend, solar cycle, lower stratospheric tropical wind, and volcanic aerosol terms. The climatology of the models for recent years is in good agreement with observations for the troposphere but the model results diverge from each other and from observations in the stratosphere. Overall, the models agree better with observations than in previous assessments, primarily because of corrections in the observed temperatures. The annually averaged global and polar temperature trends simulated by the models are generally in agreement with revised satellite observations and radiosonde data over much of their altitude range. In the global average, the model trends underpredict the radiosonde data slightly at the top of the observed range. Over the Antarctic some models underpredict the temperature trend in the lower stratosphere, while others overpredict the trends.

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An edited version of this paper was published by AGU. Copyright 2009 American Geophysical Union.
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Author Austin, J.
Wilson, R.
Akiyoshi, H.
Bekki, S.
Butchart, N.
Claud, C.
Fomichev, V.
Forster, P.
Garcia, Rolando
Gillett, N.
Keckhut, P.
Langematz, U.
Manzini, E.
Nagashima, T.
Randel, William
Rozanov, E.
Shibata, K.
Shine, K.
Struthers, H.
Thompson, D.
Wu, Fei
Yoden, S.
Publisher UCAR/NCAR - Library
Publication Date 2009-07-14T00:00:00
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) Not Assigned
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Topic Category geoscientificInformation
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Metadata Date 2023-08-18T18:57:50.793394
Metadata Record Identifier edu.ucar.opensky::articles:15483
Metadata Language eng; USA
Suggested Citation Austin, J., Wilson, R., Akiyoshi, H., Bekki, S., Butchart, N., Claud, C., Fomichev, V., Forster, P., Garcia, Rolando, Gillett, N., Keckhut, P., Langematz, U., Manzini, E., Nagashima, T., Randel, William, Rozanov, E., Shibata, K., Shine, K., Struthers, H., Thompson, D., Wu, Fei, Yoden, S.. (2009). Coupled chemistry climate model simulations of stratospheric temperatures and their trends for the recent past. UCAR/NCAR - Library. http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d70p112q. Accessed 24 April 2025.

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