Distinguishing the roles of natural and anthropogenically forced decadal climate variability: Implications for prediction

Given that over the course of the next 10 - 30 years the magnitude of natural decadal variations may rival that of anthropogenically forced climate change on regional scales, it is envisioned that initialized decadal predictions will provide important information for climate-related management and adaptation decisions. Such predictions are presently one of the grand challenges for the climate community. This requires identifying those physical phenomena--and their model equivalents--that may provide additional predictability on decadal time scales, including an assessment of the physical processes through which anthropogenic forcing may interact with or project upon natural variability. Such a physical framework is necessary to provide a consistent assessment (and insight into potential improvement) of the decadal prediction experiments planned to be assessed as part of the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report.

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Author Solomon, Amy
Goddard, Lisa
Kumar, Arun
Carton, James
Deser, Clara
Fukumori, Ichiro
Fukumori, Ichiro
Greene, Arthur
Hegerl, Gabriele
Kirtman, Ben
Kushnir, Yochanan
Newman, Matthew
Smith, Doug
Vimont, Dan
Delworth, Tom
Meehl, Gerald
Stockdale, Timothy
Publisher UCAR/NCAR - Library
Publication Date 2011-02-01T00:00:00
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) Not Assigned
Alternate Identifier N/A
Resource Version N/A
Topic Category geoscientificInformation
Progress N/A
Metadata Date 2023-08-18T18:47:16.419068
Metadata Record Identifier edu.ucar.opensky::articles:10869
Metadata Language eng; USA
Suggested Citation Solomon, Amy, Goddard, Lisa, Kumar, Arun, Carton, James, Deser, Clara, Fukumori, Ichiro, Fukumori, Ichiro, Greene, Arthur, Hegerl, Gabriele, Kirtman, Ben, Kushnir, Yochanan, Newman, Matthew, Smith, Doug, Vimont, Dan, Delworth, Tom, Meehl, Gerald, Stockdale, Timothy. (2011). Distinguishing the roles of natural and anthropogenically forced decadal climate variability: Implications for prediction. UCAR/NCAR - Library. http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7nz8875. Accessed 13 July 2024.

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