Dominant effect of relative tropical Atlantic warming on major hurricane occurrence

Here we explore factors potentially linked to the enhanced major hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean during 2017. Using a suite of high-resolution model experiments, we show that the increase in 2017 major hurricanes was not primarily caused by La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean but rather triggered mainly by pronounced warm sea surface conditions in the tropical North Atlantic. Further, we superimpose a similar pattern of North Atlantic surface warming on data for long-term increasing sea surface temperature (a product of increases in greenhouse gas concentrations and decreases in aerosols) to show that this warming trend will likely lead to even higher numbers of major hurricanes in the future. The key factor controlling Atlantic major hurricane activity appears to be the degree to which the tropical Atlantic warms relative to the rest of the global ocean.

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Copyright 2018 Author(s), some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science.


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Author Murakami, H.
Levin, E.
Delworth, T. L.
Gudgel, R.
Hsu, P.-C.
Publisher UCAR/NCAR - Library
Publication Date 2018-09-27T00:00:00
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Topic Category geoscientificInformation
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Metadata Date 2023-08-18T19:19:47.654492
Metadata Record Identifier edu.ucar.opensky::articles:22155
Metadata Language eng; USA
Suggested Citation Murakami, H., Levin, E., Delworth, T. L., Gudgel, R., Hsu, P.-C.. (2018). Dominant effect of relative tropical Atlantic warming on major hurricane occurrence. UCAR/NCAR - Library. http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7kw5k09. Accessed 10 February 2025.

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