Exceptional multi-year prediction skill of the Kuroshio Extension in the high-resolution CESM decadal prediction system

The Kuroshio Extension (KE) has far-reaching influences on climate as well as on local marine ecosystems. Thus, skillful multi-year to decadal prediction of the KE state and understanding sources of skill are valuable. Retrospective forecasts using the high-resolution CESM show exceptional skill in predicting KE variability up to lead year 4, substantially higher than the skill found in a similarly configured low-resolution CESM. The higher skill is attained because the high-resolution system can more realistically simulate the westward Rossby wave propagation of initialized ocean anomalies in the central North Pacific and their expression within the sharp KE front, and does not suffer from spurious variability near Japan present in the low-resolution CESM that interferes with the incoming wave propagation. These results argue for the use of high-resolution models for future studies that aim to predict changes in western boundary current systems and associated biological fields.

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  • Who Kim
    UCAR/NCAR - Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory

Temporal Range

  • Begin:  1983
    End:  2017


Resource Type dataset
Temporal Range Begin 1983
Temporal Range End 2017
Temporal Resolution N/A
Bounding Box North Lat 55.0
Bounding Box South Lat 20.0
Bounding Box West Long 130.0
Bounding Box East Long -120.0
Spatial Representation N/A
Spatial Resolution 0.1 degree
1.0 degree
Related Links N/A
Additional Information N/A
Resource Format application/x-netcdf
Standardized Resource Format NetCDF
Asset Size N/A
Legal Constraints

Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Access Constraints None
Software Implementation Language N/A

Resource Support Name Who Kim
Resource Support Email whokim@ucar.edu
Resource Support Organization UCAR/NCAR - Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory
Distributor N/A
Metadata Contact Name GDEX Curator
Metadata Contact Email gdex@ucar.edu
Metadata Contact Organization UCAR/NCAR - GDEX

Author Who Kim
Stephen Yeager
Gokhan Danabsoglu
Ping Chang
Publisher UCAR/NCAR - GDEX
Publication Date 2023-07-28
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) https://doi.org/10.5065/pf1q-4c39
Alternate Identifier N/A
Resource Version N/A
Topic Category N/A
Progress N/A
Metadata Date 2023-08-02T08:32:51-06:00
Metadata Record Identifier edu.ucar.gdex::049cf208-8e17-41fd-9cf2-088e1721fdbc
Metadata Language eng; USA
Suggested Citation Who Kim, Stephen Yeager, Gokhan Danabsoglu, Ping Chang. (2023). Exceptional multi-year prediction skill of the Kuroshio Extension in the high-resolution CESM decadal prediction system. UCAR/NCAR - GDEX. https://doi.org/10.5065/pf1q-4c39. Accessed 05 December 2023.

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