Forecasted attribution of the human influence on Hurricane Florence

Changes in extreme weather, such as tropical cyclones, are one of the most serious ways society experiences the impact of climate change. Advance forecasted conditional attribution statements, using a numerical model, were made about the anthropogenic climate change influence on an individual tropical cyclone, Hurricane Florence. Mean total overland rainfall amounts associated with the forecasted storm's core were increased by 4.9 +/- 4.6% with local maximum amounts experiencing increases of 3.8 +/- 5.7% due to climate change. A slight increase in the forecasted storm size of 1 to 2% was also attributed. This work reviews our forecasted attribution statement with the benefit of hindsight, demonstrating credibility of advance attribution statements for tropical cyclones.

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Author Reed, K. A.
Stansfield, A. M.
Wehner, M. F.
Zarzycki, Colin M.
Publisher UCAR/NCAR - Library
Publication Date 2020-01-01T00:00:00
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Topic Category geoscientificInformation
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Metadata Date 2023-08-18T19:07:50.535617
Metadata Record Identifier edu.ucar.opensky::articles:23110
Metadata Language eng; USA
Suggested Citation Reed, K. A., Stansfield, A. M., Wehner, M. F., Zarzycki, Colin M.. (2020). Forecasted attribution of the human influence on Hurricane Florence. UCAR/NCAR - Library. http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d71j9dxf. Accessed 29 June 2025.

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