Future sea level change under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 and phase 6 scenarios from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets

Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GrIS and AIS) rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with the previous Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models to force multiple ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at 2100 from the ice sheet model ensemble under the CMIP6 scenarios falls within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly increased for Greenland. Warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models results in higher Greenland mass loss due to surface melt. For Antarctica, CMIP6 forcing is similar to CMIP5 and mass gain from increased snowfall counteracts increased loss due to ocean warming.

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Author Payne, A. J.
Nowicki, S.
Abe-Ouchi, A.
Agosta, C.
Alexander, P.
Albrecht, T.
Asay-Davis, X.
Aschwanden, A.
Barthel, A.
Bracegirdle, T. J.
Calov, R.
Chambers, C.
Choi, Y.
Cullather, R.
Cuzzone, J.
Dumas, C.
Edwards, T. L.
Felikson, D.
Fettweis, X.
Galton-Fenzi, B. K.
Goelzer, H.
Gladstone, R.
Golledge, N. R.
Gregory, J. M.
Greve, R.
Hattermann, T.
Hoffman, M. J.
Humbert, A.
Huybrechts, P.
Jourdain, N. C.
Kleiner, T.
Munneke, P. K.
Larour, E.
Le clec'h, S.
Lee, V.
Leguy, Gunter
Lipscomb, William
Little, C. M.
Lowry, D. P.
Morlighem, M.
Nias, I.
Pattyn, F.
Pelle, T.
Price, S. F.
Quiquet, A.
Reese, R.
Rückamp, M.
Schlegel, N.
Seroussi, H.
Shepherd, A.
Simon, E.
Slater, D.
Smith, R. S.
Straneo, F.
Sun, S.
Tarasov, L.
Trusel, L. D.
Van Breedam, J.
Wal, R.
Broeke, M.
Winkelmann, R.
Zhao, C.
Zhang, T.
Zwinger, T.
Publisher UCAR/NCAR - Library
Publication Date 2021-08-28T00:00:00
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) Not Assigned
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Topic Category geoscientificInformation
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Metadata Date 2025-07-11T16:12:34.956235
Metadata Record Identifier edu.ucar.opensky::articles:24689
Metadata Language eng; USA
Suggested Citation Payne, A. J., Nowicki, S., Abe-Ouchi, A., Agosta, C., Alexander, P., Albrecht, T., Asay-Davis, X., Aschwanden, A., Barthel, A., Bracegirdle, T. J., Calov, R., Chambers, C., Choi, Y., Cullather, R., Cuzzone, J., Dumas, C., Edwards, T. L., Felikson, D., Fettweis, X., Galton-Fenzi, B. K., Goelzer, H., Gladstone, R., Golledge, N. R., Gregory, J. M., Greve, R., Hattermann, T., Hoffman, M. J., Humbert, A., Huybrechts, P., Jourdain, N. C., Kleiner, T., Munneke, P. K., Larour, E., Le clec'h, S., Lee, V., Leguy, Gunter, Lipscomb, William, Little, C. M., Lowry, D. P., Morlighem, M., Nias, I., Pattyn, F., Pelle, T., Price, S. F., Quiquet, A., Reese, R., Rückamp, M., Schlegel, N., Seroussi, H., Shepherd, A., Simon, E., Slater, D., Smith, R. S., Straneo, F., Sun, S., Tarasov, L., Trusel, L. D., Van Breedam, J., Wal, R., Broeke, M., Winkelmann, R., Zhao, C., Zhang, T., Zwinger, T.. (2021). Future sea level change under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 and phase 6 scenarios from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. UCAR/NCAR - Library. https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7f76h1h. Accessed 09 August 2025.

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