High resolution forecasting of summer drought in the Western United States

Drought monitoring and forecasting systems are used in the United States (U.S.) to inform drought management decisions. Drought forecasting efforts have often been conducted and evaluated at coarse spatial resolutions (i.e., > 10-km), which miss key local drought information at higher resolutions. Addressing the importance of forecasting drought at high resolutions, this study develops statistical models to evaluate 1- to 3-month lead time predictability of meteorological and agricultural summer drought across the western U.S. at a 4-km resolution. Our high-resolution drought predictions have statistically significant skill (p = 0.73). This study is intended to support future development of operational drought early warning systems that inform drought management.

To Access Resource:

Questions? Email Resource Support Contact:

  • opensky@ucar.edu
    UCAR/NCAR - Library

Resource Type publication
Temporal Range Begin N/A
Temporal Range End N/A
Temporal Resolution N/A
Bounding Box North Lat N/A
Bounding Box South Lat N/A
Bounding Box West Long N/A
Bounding Box East Long N/A
Spatial Representation N/A
Spatial Resolution N/A
Related Links

Related Dataset #1 : High Resolution Ensemble Forecasting of Summer Drought in the Western United States with Statistical Models

Related Dataset #2 : Four-kilometer long-term regional hydroclimate reanalysis over the conterminous United States (CONUS), 1979-2020

Related Dataset #3 : Daily 4 km Gridded SWE and Snow Depth from Assimilated In-Situ and Modeled Data over the Conterminous US, Version 1
Additional Information N/A
Resource Format PDF
Standardized Resource Format PDF
Asset Size N/A
Legal Constraints

Copyright author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
Access Constraints None
Software Implementation Language N/A

Resource Support Name N/A
Resource Support Email opensky@ucar.edu
Resource Support Organization UCAR/NCAR - Library
Distributor N/A
Metadata Contact Name N/A
Metadata Contact Email opensky@ucar.edu
Metadata Contact Organization UCAR/NCAR - Library

Author Abolafia-Rosenzweig, Ronnie
He, Cenlin
Chen, Fei
Ikeda, Kyoko
Schneider, Timothy
Rasmussen, Roy M.
Publisher UCAR/NCAR - Library
Publication Date 2023-03-01T00:00:00
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) Not Assigned
Alternate Identifier N/A
Resource Version N/A
Topic Category geoscientificInformation
Progress N/A
Metadata Date 2025-07-11T15:54:05.320965
Metadata Record Identifier edu.ucar.opensky::articles:26207
Metadata Language eng; USA
Suggested Citation Abolafia-Rosenzweig, Ronnie, He, Cenlin, Chen, Fei, Ikeda, Kyoko, Schneider, Timothy, Rasmussen, Roy M.. (2023). High resolution forecasting of summer drought in the Western United States. UCAR/NCAR - Library. https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7377dnm. Accessed 06 November 2025.

Harvest Source