Impacts of Atlantic multidecadal variability on the tropical Pacific: A multi-model study

Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) has been linked to the observed slowdown of global warming over 1998-2012 through its impact on the tropical Pacific. Given the global importance of tropical Pacific variability, better understanding this Atlantic-Pacific teleconnection is key for improving climate predictions, but the robustness and strength of this link are uncertain. Analyzing a multi-model set of sensitivity experiments, we find that models differ by a factor of 10 in simulating the amplitude of the Equatorial Pacific cooling response to observed AMV warming. The inter-model spread is mainly driven by different amounts of moist static energy injection from the tropical Atlantic surface into the upper troposphere. We reduce this inter-model uncertainty by analytically correcting models for their mean precipitation biases and we quantify that, following an observed 0.26 degrees C AMV warming, the equatorial Pacific cools by 0.11 degrees C with an inter-model standard deviation of 0.03 degrees C.

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Author Ruprich-Robert, Y.
Moreno-Chamarro, E.
Levine, X.
Bellucci, A.
Cassou, C.
Castruccio, Frederic
Davini, P.
Eade, R.
Gastineau, G.
Hermanson, L.
Hodson, D.
Lohmann, K.
Lopez-Parages, J.
Monerie, P.
Nicolì, D.
Qasmi, S.
Roberts, C. D.
Sanchez-Gomez, E.
Danabasoglu, Gokhan
Dunstone, N.
Martin-Rey, M.
Msadek, R.
Robson, J.
Smith, D.
Tourigny, E.
Publisher UCAR/NCAR - Library
Publication Date 2021-12-01T00:00:00
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) Not Assigned
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Resource Version N/A
Topic Category geoscientificInformation
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Metadata Date 2025-07-11T16:09:20.779012
Metadata Record Identifier edu.ucar.opensky::articles:24439
Metadata Language eng; USA
Suggested Citation Ruprich-Robert, Y., Moreno-Chamarro, E., Levine, X., Bellucci, A., Cassou, C., Castruccio, Frederic, Davini, P., Eade, R., Gastineau, G., Hermanson, L., Hodson, D., Lohmann, K., Lopez-Parages, J., Monerie, P., Nicolì, D., Qasmi, S., Roberts, C. D., Sanchez-Gomez, E., Danabasoglu, Gokhan, Dunstone, N., Martin-Rey, M., Msadek, R., Robson, J., Smith, D., Tourigny, E.. (2021). Impacts of Atlantic multidecadal variability on the tropical Pacific: A multi-model study. UCAR/NCAR - Library. https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7445qw0. Accessed 02 November 2025.

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