Internal variability dominates over externally forced ocean circulation changes seen through CFCS

Observations of oceanic transient tracers have indicated that the circulation in the Southern Ocean has changed in recent decades, potentially driven by changes in external climate forcing. Here, we use the CESM Large Ensemble to analyze changes in two oceanic tracers that are affected by ocean circulation: the partial pressure of chlorofluorocarbon-12 (pCFC12) and the idealized model tracer Ideal Age (IAGE) over the 1991 to 2005 period. The small ensemble mean change in IAGE suggests that there has been very little externally forced change in Southern Ocean circulation over this period, in contrast to strong internal variability. Further, our analysis implies that real-world observations of changes in pCFC12 may not be a robust way to characterize externally driven changes in Southern Ocean circulation because of the large internal variability in pCFC12 changes exhibited by the individual ensemble members.