Long-range prediction and the stratosphere

Over recent years there have been concomitant advances in the development of stratosphere-resolving numerical models, our understanding of stratosphere-troposphere interaction, and the extension of long-range forecasts to explicitly include the stratosphere. These advances are now allowing for new and improved capability in long-range prediction. We present an overview of this development and show how the inclusion of the stratosphere in forecast systems aids monthly, seasonal, and annual-to-decadal climate predictions and multidecadal projections. We end with an outlook towards the future and identify areas of improvement that could further benefit these rapidly evolving predictions.

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Author Scaife, A. A.
Baldwin, M. P.
Butler, A. H.
Charlton-Perez, A. J.
Domeisen, D. I. V.
Garfinkel, C. I.
Hardiman, S. C.
HAYNES, P.
Karpechko, A. Y.
Lim, E.
Noguchi, S.
Perlwitz, J.
Polvani, L.
Richter, Jadwiga H.
Scinocca, J.
Sigmond, M.
Shepherd, T. G.
Son, S.
Thompson, D. W. J.
Publisher UCAR/NCAR - Library
Publication Date 2022-02-25T00:00:00
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) Not Assigned
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Topic Category geoscientificInformation
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Metadata Date 2025-07-11T16:06:22.182913
Metadata Record Identifier edu.ucar.opensky::articles:25191
Metadata Language eng; USA
Suggested Citation Scaife, A. A., Baldwin, M. P., Butler, A. H., Charlton-Perez, A. J., Domeisen, D. I. V., Garfinkel, C. I., Hardiman, S. C., HAYNES, P., Karpechko, A. Y., Lim, E., Noguchi, S., Perlwitz, J., Polvani, L., Richter, Jadwiga H., Scinocca, J., Sigmond, M., Shepherd, T. G., Son, S., Thompson, D. W. J.. (2022). Long-range prediction and the stratosphere. UCAR/NCAR - Library. https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7b85cqv. Accessed 27 August 2025.

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