Modes of variability in E3SM and CESM Large Ensembles

An adequate characterization of internal modes of climate variability (MoV) is a prerequisite for both accurate seasonal predictions and climate change detection and attribution. Assessing the fidelity of climate models in simulating MoV is therefore essential; however, doing so is complicated by the large intrinsic variations in MoV and the limited span of the observational record. Large ensembles (LEs) provide a unique opportunity to assess model fidelity in simulating MoV and quantify intermodel contrasts. In this work, these goals are pursued in four recently produced LEs: the versions 1 and 2 LEs. In general, the representation of global coupled modes is found to improve across successive E3SM and CESM versions in conjunction with the fidelity of the base state climate while the patterns of extratropical modes are well simulated across the ensembles. Various persistent shortcomings for all MoV are however identified and discussed. The results both demonstrate the successes of these recent model versions and suggest the potential for continued improvement in the representation of MoV with advances in model physics.

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Copyright 2024 American Meteorological Society (AMS).


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Author Fasullo, John T.
Caron, Julie
Phillips, Adam
Li, Hui
Richter, Jadwiga H.
Neale, Richard
Rosenbloom, Nan
Strand, Warren G.
Glanville, Anne A.
Li, Yuanpu
Lehner, Flavio
Meehl, Gerald A.
Golaz, J.
Ullrich, P.
Lee, J.
Arblaster, J.
Publisher UCAR/NCAR - Library
Publication Date 2024-04-15T00:00:00
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) Not Assigned
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Topic Category geoscientificInformation
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Metadata Date 2025-07-10T20:02:54.417622
Metadata Record Identifier edu.ucar.opensky::articles:27118
Metadata Language eng; USA
Suggested Citation Fasullo, John T., Caron, Julie, Phillips, Adam, Li, Hui, Richter, Jadwiga H., Neale, Richard, Rosenbloom, Nan, Strand, Warren G., Glanville, Anne A., Li, Yuanpu, Lehner, Flavio, Meehl, Gerald A., Golaz, J., Ullrich, P., Lee, J., Arblaster, J.. (2024). Modes of variability in E3SM and CESM Large Ensembles. UCAR/NCAR - Library. https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7v98d74. Accessed 01 August 2025.

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