Moisture transport into midlatitudes ahead of recurving tropical cyclones and its relevance in two predecessor rain events

Global ensemble forecasts from The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) are used to quantify the magnitude of moisture transport into North America ahead of recurving tropical cyclones (TCs). Two cases in which a predecessor rain event (PRE) occurred ahead of the recurving TC--Erin (2007) and Ike (2008)--are analyzed, with ensemble members correctly predicting TC recurvature contrasted from those predicting the TC to weaken or turn southward. This analysis demonstrates that TC-related moisture transport can increase the total water vapor in the atmosphere over North America by 20 mm or more, and that the moisture transport takes place both in the boundary layer and aloft. The increased moisture does not always correspond to increased rainfall in the ensemble forecasts, however, as the location and strength of baroclinic zones and their attendant secondary circulations that can lift this moist air are also crucial to the development of heavy rains.

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Author Schumacher, R.
Galarneau, Thomas
Publisher UCAR/NCAR - Library
Publication Date 2012-06-01T00:00:00
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Topic Category geoscientificInformation
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Metadata Date 2025-07-15T21:34:40.471328
Metadata Record Identifier edu.ucar.opensky::articles:11715
Metadata Language eng; USA
Suggested Citation Schumacher, R., Galarneau, Thomas. (2012). Moisture transport into midlatitudes ahead of recurving tropical cyclones and its relevance in two predecessor rain events. UCAR/NCAR - Library. https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7bc405s. Accessed 20 August 2025.

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