Next-generation regional ocean projections for living marine resource management in a changing climate

Efforts to manage living marine resources (LMRs) under climate change need projections of future ocean conditions, yet most global climate models (GCMs) poorly represent critical coastal habitats. GCM utility for LMR applications will increase with higher spatial resolution but obstacles including computational and data storage costs, obstinate regional biases, and formulations prioritizing global robustness over regional skill will persist. Downscaling can help address GCM limitations, but significant improvements are needed to robustly support LMR science and management. We synthesize past ocean downscaling efforts to suggest a protocol to achieve this goal. The protocol emphasizes LMR-driven design to ensure delivery of decision- relevant information. It prioritizes ensembles of downscaled projections spanning the range of ocean futures with durations long enough to capture climate change signals. This demands judicious resolution refinement, with pragmatic consideration for LMR-essential ocean features superseding theoretical investigation. Statistical downscaling can complement dynamical approaches in building these ensembles. Inconsistent use of bias correction indicates a need for objective best practices. Application of the suggested protocol should yield regional ocean projections that, with effective dissemination and translation to decision-relevant analytics, can robustly support LMR science and management under climate change.

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Copyright 2021 International Council for the Exploration of the Sea 2021. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.
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Author Drenkard, Elizabeth J
Stock, Charles
Ross, Andrew C
Dixon, Keith W
Adcroft, Alistair
Alexander, Michael
Balaji, Venkatramani
Bograd, Steven J
Butenschön, Momme
Cheng, Wei
Curchitser, Enrique
Lorenzo, Emanuele Di
Dussin, Raphael
Haynie, Alan C
Harrison, Matthew
Hermann, Albert
Hollowed, Anne
Holsman, Kirstin
Holt, Jason
Jacox, Michael G
Jang, Chan Joo
Kearney, Kelly A
Muhling, Barbara A
Buil, Mercedes Pozo
Saba, Vincent
Sandø, Anne Britt
Tommasi, Désirée
Wang, Muyin
Publisher UCAR/NCAR - Library
Publication Date 2021-09-01T00:00:00
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) Not Assigned
Alternate Identifier N/A
Resource Version N/A
Topic Category geoscientificInformation
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Metadata Date 2023-08-18T18:34:50.236772
Metadata Record Identifier edu.ucar.opensky::articles:24905
Metadata Language eng; USA
Suggested Citation Drenkard, Elizabeth J, Stock, Charles, Ross, Andrew C, Dixon, Keith W, Adcroft, Alistair, Alexander, Michael, Balaji, Venkatramani, Bograd, Steven J, Butenschön, Momme, Cheng, Wei, Curchitser, Enrique, Lorenzo, Emanuele Di, Dussin, Raphael, Haynie, Alan C, Harrison, Matthew, Hermann, Albert, Hollowed, Anne, Holsman, Kirstin, Holt, Jason, Jacox, Michael G, Jang, Chan Joo, Kearney, Kelly A, Muhling, Barbara A, Buil, Mercedes Pozo, Saba, Vincent, Sandø, Anne Britt, Tommasi, Désirée, Wang, Muyin. (2021). Next-generation regional ocean projections for living marine resource management in a changing climate. UCAR/NCAR - Library. http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7v98ck6. Accessed 23 June 2025.

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