North Atlantic climate far more predictable than models imply

Current models are too noisy to predict climate usefully on decadal timescales, but two-stage post-processing of model outputs greatly improves predictions of decadal variations in North Atlantic winter climate.

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Author Smith, D. M.
Scaife, A. A.
Eade, R.
Athanasiadis, P.
Bellucci, A.
Bethke, I.
Bilbao, R.
Borchert, L. F.
Caron, L.
Counillon, F.
Danabasoglu, Gokhan
Delworth, T.
Doblas-Reyes, F. J.
Dunstone, N. J.
Estella-Perez, V.
Flavoni, S.
Hermanson, L.
Keenlyside, N.
Kharin, V.
Kimoto, M.
Merryfield, W. J.
Mignot, J.
Mochizuki, T.
Modali, K.
Monerie, P.
Müller, W. A.
Nicolí, D.
Ortega, P.
Pankatz, K.
Pohlmann, H.
Robson, J.
Ruggieri, P.
Sospedra-Alfonso, R.
Swingedouw, D.
Wang, Y.
Wild, S.
Yeager, Stephen
Yang, X.
Zhang, L.
Publisher UCAR/NCAR - Library
Publication Date 2020-07-30T00:00:00
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) Not Assigned
Alternate Identifier N/A
Resource Version N/A
Topic Category geoscientificInformation
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Metadata Date 2025-07-11T19:17:12.877811
Metadata Record Identifier edu.ucar.opensky::articles:23616
Metadata Language eng; USA
Suggested Citation Smith, D. M., Scaife, A. A., Eade, R., Athanasiadis, P., Bellucci, A., Bethke, I., Bilbao, R., Borchert, L. F., Caron, L., Counillon, F., Danabasoglu, Gokhan, Delworth, T., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Dunstone, N. J., Estella-Perez, V., Flavoni, S., Hermanson, L., Keenlyside, N., Kharin, V., Kimoto, M., Merryfield, W. J., Mignot, J., Mochizuki, T., Modali, K., Monerie, P., Müller, W. A., Nicolí, D., Ortega, P., Pankatz, K., Pohlmann, H., Robson, J., Ruggieri, P., Sospedra-Alfonso, R., Swingedouw, D., Wang, Y., Wild, S., Yeager, Stephen, Yang, X., Zhang, L.. (2020). North Atlantic climate far more predictable than models imply. UCAR/NCAR - Library. https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d71n84d2. Accessed 11 November 2025.

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