Paleoclimate data provide constraints on climate models' large-scale response to past CO2 changes

The paleoclimate record provides a test-bed in which climate models can be evaluated under conditions of substantial CO2 change; however, these data are typically under-used in the process of model development and evaluation. Here, we use a set of metrics based on paleoclimate proxy observations to evaluate climate models under three past time periods. We find that the latest CMIP6/PMIP4 ensemble mean does a remarkably good job of simulating the global mean surface air temperatures of these past periods, and is improved on CMIP5/PMIP3, implying that the modern climate sensitivity of the CMIP6/PMIP4 model ensemble mean is consistent with the paleoclimate record. However, some models, in particular those with very high or very low climate sensitivity, simulate paleo temperatures that are outside the uncertainty range of the paleo proxy temperature data; in this regard, the paleo data can provide a more stringent constraint than data from the historical record. There is also consistency between models and data in terms of polar amplification, with amplification increasing with increasing global mean temperature across all three time periods. The work highlights the benefits of using the paleoclimate record in the model development and evaluation cycle, in particular for screening models with too-high or too-low climate sensitivity across a range of CO2 concentrations.

To Access Resource:

Questions? Email Resource Support Contact:

  • opensky@ucar.edu
    UCAR/NCAR - Library

Resource Type publication
Temporal Range Begin N/A
Temporal Range End N/A
Temporal Resolution N/A
Bounding Box North Lat N/A
Bounding Box South Lat N/A
Bounding Box West Long N/A
Bounding Box East Long N/A
Spatial Representation N/A
Spatial Resolution N/A
Related Links

Related Dataset #1 : Chapter 7 of the Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report - Input data for Figure 7.13 (v20220118)

Additional Information N/A
Resource Format PDF
Standardized Resource Format PDF
Asset Size N/A
Legal Constraints

Copyright author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.


Access Constraints None
Software Implementation Language N/A

Resource Support Name N/A
Resource Support Email opensky@ucar.edu
Resource Support Organization UCAR/NCAR - Library
Distributor N/A
Metadata Contact Name N/A
Metadata Contact Email opensky@ucar.edu
Metadata Contact Organization UCAR/NCAR - Library

Author Lunt, D. J.
Otto-Bliesner, Bette
Brierley, C.
Haywood, A.
Inglis, G. N.
Izumi, K.
Kageyama, M.
Kaufman, D.
Mauritsen, T.
McClymont, E. L.
Salzmann, U.
Steinig, S.
Tierney, J. E.
Zhao, A.
Zhu, Jiang
Publisher UCAR/NCAR - Library
Publication Date 2024-08-07T00:00:00
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) Not Assigned
Alternate Identifier N/A
Resource Version N/A
Topic Category geoscientificInformation
Progress N/A
Metadata Date 2025-07-10T19:59:35.695970
Metadata Record Identifier edu.ucar.opensky::articles:27424
Metadata Language eng; USA
Suggested Citation Lunt, D. J., Otto-Bliesner, Bette, Brierley, C., Haywood, A., Inglis, G. N., Izumi, K., Kageyama, M., Kaufman, D., Mauritsen, T., McClymont, E. L., Salzmann, U., Steinig, S., Tierney, J. E., Zhao, A., Zhu, Jiang. (2024). Paleoclimate data provide constraints on climate models' large-scale response to past CO2 changes. UCAR/NCAR - Library. https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7x92gjb. Accessed 01 August 2025.

Harvest Source