Potential impact of initialization on decadal predictions as assessed for CMIP5 models

To investigate the potential for initialization to improve decadal range predictions, we quantify the initial value predictability of upper 300 m temperature in the two northern ocean basins for 12 models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), and we contrast it with the forced predictability in Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 climate change projections. We use a recently introduced method that produces predictability estimates from long control runs. Many initial states are considered, and we find on average 1) initialization has the potential to improve skill in the first 5 years in the North Pacific and the first 9 years in the North Atlantic, and 2) the impact from initialization becomes secondary compared to the impact of RCP4.5 forcing after 6 1/2 and 8 years in the two basins, respectively. Model-to-model and spatial variations in these limits are, however, substantial.

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Copyright 2012 American Geophysical Union.

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Author Branstator, Grant
Teng, Haiyan
Publisher UCAR/NCAR - Library
Publication Date 2012-06-23T00:00:00
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Topic Category geoscientificInformation
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Metadata Date 2023-08-18T18:23:17.554811
Metadata Record Identifier edu.ucar.opensky::articles:11700
Metadata Language eng; USA
Suggested Citation Branstator, Grant, Teng, Haiyan. (2012). Potential impact of initialization on decadal predictions as assessed for CMIP5 models. UCAR/NCAR - Library. http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d76t0n8q. Accessed 21 September 2023.

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