Robust but weak winter atmospheric circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss

The possibility that Arctic sea ice loss weakens mid-latitude westerlies, promoting more severe cold winters, has sparked more than a decade of scientific debate, with apparent support from observations but inconclusive modelling evidence. Here we show that sixteen models contributing to the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project simulate a weakening of mid-latitude westerlies in response to projected Arctic sea ice loss. We develop an emergent constraint based on eddy feedback, which is 1.2 to 3 times too weak in the models, suggesting that the real-world weakening lies towards the higher end of the model simulations. Still, the modelled response to Arctic sea ice loss is weak: the North Atlantic Oscillation response is similar in magnitude and offsets the projected response to increased greenhouse gases, but would only account for around 10% of variations in individual years. We further find that relationships between Arctic sea ice and atmospheric circulation have weakened recently in observations and are no longer inconsistent with those in models.

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Author Smith, D. M.
Eade, R.
Andrews, M. B.
Ayres, H.
Clark, A.
Chripko, S.
Deser, Clara
Dunstone, N. J.
García-Serrano, J.
Gastineau, G.
Graff, L. S.
Hardiman, S. C.
He, B.
Hermanson, L.
Jung, T.
Knight, J.
Levine, X.
Magnusdottir, G.
Manzini, E.
Matei, D.
Mori, M.
Msadek, R.
Ortega, P.
Peings, Y.
Scaife, A. A.
Screen, J. A.
Seabrook, M.
Semmler, T.
Sigmond, M.
Streffing, J.
Sun, L.
Walsh, A.
Publisher UCAR/NCAR - Library
Publication Date 2022-02-07T00:00:00
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) Not Assigned
Alternate Identifier N/A
Resource Version N/A
Topic Category geoscientificInformation
Progress N/A
Metadata Date 2025-07-11T16:06:44.200790
Metadata Record Identifier edu.ucar.opensky::articles:25131
Metadata Language eng; USA
Suggested Citation Smith, D. M., Eade, R., Andrews, M. B., Ayres, H., Clark, A., Chripko, S., Deser, Clara, Dunstone, N. J., García-Serrano, J., Gastineau, G., Graff, L. S., Hardiman, S. C., He, B., Hermanson, L., Jung, T., Knight, J., Levine, X., Magnusdottir, G., Manzini, E., Matei, D., Mori, M., Msadek, R., Ortega, P., Peings, Y., Scaife, A. A., Screen, J. A., Seabrook, M., Semmler, T., Sigmond, M., Streffing, J., Sun, L., Walsh, A.. (2022). Robust but weak winter atmospheric circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss. UCAR/NCAR - Library. https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d76t0r7h. Accessed 06 November 2025.

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