The conterminous United States are projected to become more prone to flash floods in a high-end emissions scenario

Flash floods are largely driven by high rainfall rates in convective storms that are projected to increase in frequency and intensity in a warmer climate in the future. However, quantifying the changes in future flood flashiness is challenging due to the lack of high-resolution climate simulations. Here we use outputs from a continental convective-permitting numerical weather model at 4-km and hourly resolution and force a numerical hydrologic model at a continental scale to depict such change. As results indicate, US floods are becoming 7.9% flashier by the end of the century assuming a high-emissions scenario. The Southwest (+10.5%) has the greatest increase in flashiness among historical flash flood hot spots, and the central US (+8.6%) is emerging as a new flash flood hot spot. Additionally, future flash flood-prone frontiers are advancing northwards. This study calls on implementing climate-resilient mitigation measures for emerging flash flood hot spots.

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Author Li, Zhi
Gao, Shang
Chen, Mengye
Gourley, Jonathan J.
Liu, Changhai
Prein, Andreas F.
Hong, Yang
Publisher UCAR/NCAR - Library
Publication Date 2022-04-06T00:00:00
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Topic Category geoscientificInformation
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Metadata Date 2023-08-18T18:36:01.726774
Metadata Record Identifier edu.ucar.opensky::articles:25280
Metadata Language eng; USA
Suggested Citation Li, Zhi, Gao, Shang, Chen, Mengye, Gourley, Jonathan J., Liu, Changhai, Prein, Andreas F., Hong, Yang. (2022). The conterminous United States are projected to become more prone to flash floods in a high-end emissions scenario. UCAR/NCAR - Library. http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d75m69bc. Accessed 27 June 2025.

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