Two methods for estimating limits to large-scale wind power generation

Wind turbines generate electricity by removing kinetic energy from the atmosphere. We show that the limited replenishment of kinetic energy from aloft limits wind power generation rates at scales sufficiently large that horizontal fluxes of kinetic energy can be ignored. We evaluate these factors with regional atmospheric model simulations and find that generation limits can be estimated from the ‟preturbine" climatology by comparatively simple means, working best when the atmosphere between the surface and hub height is naturally well-mixed during the day. Our results show that the reduction of wind speeds and limited downward fluxes determine the limits in large-scale wind power generation to less than 1 W⋅m⁻².