Understanding future changes in tropical cyclogenesis using Self-Organizing Maps

Future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) genesis locations and frequency are explored by identifying relationships between TC genesis and dominant daily large-scale patterns, and evaluating the strength of these relationships under a climate change scenario. Self-Organizing Maps (SOMs) are used to characterize the dominant large-scale patterns in reanalysis data and in a regional climate model ensemble simulation of current climate. The main features on the resulting sea level pressure (SLP) SOMs are nodes that resemble both the negative and positive phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation, as well as blocking and ridging regimes. The frequency of the NAO-like nodes is strongly linked to TC genesis frequency and preferred genesis locations. This link is used to develop a statistical relationship between the frequency of large scale SLP patterns and TC genesis. The application of this relationship to an ensemble regional climate simulation under a future climate forcing scenario predicts fewer TCs, which is consistent with the regional climate model that explicitly simulates fewer TCs. This demonstrates the strength of the relationships and their use in assessing future changes in TC genesis locations and frequency.

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Related Dataset #1 : ERA-Interim Project

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Copyright 2019 Author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license.


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Author Jaye, Abigail B.
Bruyere, Cindy L.
Done, James M.
Publisher UCAR/NCAR - Library
Publication Date 2019-12-01T00:00:00
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Topic Category geoscientificInformation
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Metadata Date 2025-07-11T19:23:26.498509
Metadata Record Identifier edu.ucar.opensky::articles:22999
Metadata Language eng; USA
Suggested Citation Jaye, Abigail B., Bruyere, Cindy L., Done, James M.. (2019). Understanding future changes in tropical cyclogenesis using Self-Organizing Maps. UCAR/NCAR - Library. https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d77w6gc8. Accessed 07 August 2025.

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