Land processes can substantially impact the mean climate state

Terrestrial processes influence the atmosphere by controlling land‐to‐atmosphere fluxes of energy, water, and carbon. Prior research has demonstrated that parameter uncertainty drives uncertainty in land surface fluxes. However, the influence of land process uncertainty on the climate system remains underexplored. Here, we quantify how assumptions about land processes impact climate using a perturbed parameter ensemble for 18 land parameters in the Community Earth System Model version 2 under preindustrial conditions. We find that an observationally‐informed range of land parameters generate biogeophysical feedbacks that significantly influence the mean climate state, largely by modifying evapotranspiration. Global mean land surface temperature ranges by 2.2°C across our ensemble ( σ  = 0.5°C) and precipitation changes were significant and spatially variable. Our analysis demonstrates that the impacts of land parameter uncertainty on surface fluxes propagate to the entire Earth system, and provides insights into where and how land process uncertainty influences climate.

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Author Zarakas, C. M.
Kennedy, Daniel
Dagon, Katherine
Lawrence, David M.
Liu, A.
Bonan, Gordon B.
Koven, C.
Lombardozzi, Danica
Swann, A. L. S.
Publisher UCAR/NCAR - Library
Publication Date 2024-11-01T00:00:00
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Topic Category geoscientificInformation
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Metadata Date 2025-07-10T19:57:54.687600
Metadata Record Identifier edu.ucar.opensky::articles:42159
Metadata Language eng; USA
Suggested Citation Zarakas, C. M., Kennedy, Daniel, Dagon, Katherine, Lawrence, David M., Liu, A., Bonan, Gordon B., Koven, C., Lombardozzi, Danica, Swann, A. L. S.. (2024). Land processes can substantially impact the mean climate state. UCAR/NCAR - Library. https://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7vh5t4p. Accessed 11 August 2025.

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