Stratospheric ozone loss over the Eurasian continent induced by the polar vortex shift

The Montreal Protocol has succeeded in limiting major ozone-depleting substance emissions, and consequently stratospheric ozone concentrations are expected to recover this century. However, there is a large uncertainty in the rate of regional ozone recovery in the Northern Hemisphere. Here we identify a Eurasia-North America dipole mode in the total column ozone over the Northern Hemisphere, showing negative and positive total column ozone anomaly centres over Eurasia and North America, respectively. The positive trend of this mode explains an enhanced total column ozone decline over the Eurasian continent in the past three decades, which is closely related to the polar vortex shift towards Eurasia. Multiple chemistry-climate-model simulations indicate that the positive Eurasia-North America dipole trend in late winter is likely to continue in the near future. Our findings suggest that the anticipated ozone recovery in late winter will be sensitive not only to the ozone-depleting substance decline but also to the polar vortex changes, and could be substantially delayed in some regions of the Northern Hemisphere extratropics.

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Author Zhang, Jiankai
Tian, Wenshou
Xie, Fei
Chipperfield, Martyn P.
Feng, Wuhu
Son, Seok-Woo
Abraham, N. Luke
Archibald, Alexander T.
Bekki, Slimane
Butchart, Neal
Deushi, Makoto
Dhomse, Sandip
Han, Yuanyuan
Jöckel, Patrick
Kinnison, Douglas
Kirner, Ole
Michou, Martine
Morgenstern, Olaf
O’Connor, Fiona M.
Pitari, Giovanni
Plummer, David A.
Revell, Laura E.
Rozanov, Eugene
Visioni, Daniele
Wang, Wuke
Zeng, Guang
Publisher UCAR/NCAR - Library
Publication Date 2018-01-15T00:00:00
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) Not Assigned
Alternate Identifier N/A
Resource Version N/A
Topic Category geoscientificInformation
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Metadata Date 2023-08-18T19:17:09.784136
Metadata Record Identifier edu.ucar.opensky::articles:21267
Metadata Language eng; USA
Suggested Citation Zhang, Jiankai, Tian, Wenshou, Xie, Fei, Chipperfield, Martyn P., Feng, Wuhu, Son, Seok-Woo, Abraham, N. Luke, Archibald, Alexander T., Bekki, Slimane, Butchart, Neal, Deushi, Makoto, Dhomse, Sandip, Han, Yuanyuan, Jöckel, Patrick, Kinnison, Douglas, Kirner, Ole, Michou, Martine, Morgenstern, Olaf, O’Connor, Fiona M., Pitari, Giovanni, Plummer, David A., Revell, Laura E., Rozanov, Eugene, Visioni, Daniele, Wang, Wuke, Zeng, Guang. (2018). Stratospheric ozone loss over the Eurasian continent induced by the polar vortex shift. UCAR/NCAR - Library. http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7x3512r. Accessed 16 June 2025.

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