The role of natural halogens in global tropospheric ozone chemistry and budget under different 21st century climate scenarios

Tropospheric ozone (urn:x-wiley:2169897X:media:jgrd57367:jgrd57367-math-0001) is an important greenhouse gas and a surface pollutant. The future evolution of urn:x-wiley:2169897X:media:jgrd57367:jgrd57367-math-0002 abundances and chemical processing are uncertain due to a changing climate, socioeconomic developments, and missing chemistry in global models. Here, we use an Earth System Model with natural halogen chemistry to investigate the changes in the urn:x-wiley:2169897X:media:jgrd57367:jgrd57367-math-0003 budget over the 21st century following Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)6.0 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. Our results indicate that the global tropospheric urn:x-wiley:2169897X:media:jgrd57367:jgrd57367-math-0004 net chemical change (NCC, chemical gross production minus destruction) will decrease urn:x-wiley:2169897X:media:jgrd57367:jgrd57367-math-0005, notwithstanding increasing or decreasing trends in ozone production and loss. However, a wide range of surface NCC variations (from −60urn:x-wiley:2169897X:media:jgrd57367:jgrd57367-math-0006 to 150urn:x-wiley:2169897X:media:jgrd57367:jgrd57367-math-0007) are projected over polluted regions with stringent abatements in urn:x-wiley:2169897X:media:jgrd57367:jgrd57367-math-0008 precursor emissions. Water vapor and iodine are found to be key drivers of future tropospheric urn:x-wiley:2169897X:media:jgrd57367:jgrd57367-math-0009 destruction, while the largest changes in urn:x-wiley:2169897X:media:jgrd57367:jgrd57367-math-0010 production are determined by the future evolution of peroxy radicals. We show that natural halogens, currently not considered in climate models, significantly impact on the present-day and future global urn:x-wiley:2169897X:media:jgrd57367:jgrd57367-math-0011 burden reducing urn:x-wiley:2169897X:media:jgrd57367:jgrd57367-math-001230–35 Tg (11–15urn:x-wiley:2169897X:media:jgrd57367:jgrd57367-math-0013) of tropospheric ozone throughout the 21st century regardless of the RCP scenario considered. This highlights the importance of including natural halogen chemistry in climate model projections of future tropospheric ozone.

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Author Badia, Alba
Iglesias‐Suarez, Fernando
Fernandez, Rafael P.
Cuevas, Carlos A.
Kinnison, Douglas E.
Lamarque, Jean‐Francois
Griffiths, Paul T.
Tarasick, David W.
Liu, Jane
Saiz‐Lopez, Alfonso
Publisher UCAR/NCAR - Library
Publication Date 2021-10-27T00:00:00
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) Not Assigned
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Topic Category geoscientificInformation
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Metadata Date 2023-08-18T18:25:27.110300
Metadata Record Identifier edu.ucar.opensky::articles:24773
Metadata Language eng; USA
Suggested Citation Badia, Alba, Iglesias‐Suarez, Fernando, Fernandez, Rafael P., Cuevas, Carlos A., Kinnison, Douglas E., Lamarque, Jean‐Francois, Griffiths, Paul T., Tarasick, David W., Liu, Jane, Saiz‐Lopez, Alfonso. (2021). The role of natural halogens in global tropospheric ozone chemistry and budget under different 21st century climate scenarios. UCAR/NCAR - Library. http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7348pvz. Accessed 20 June 2025.

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