Causes and multiyear predictability of the rapid acceleration of U.S. Southeast Sea level rise after 2010

The rate of sea level rise (SLR) along the Southeast Coast of the U.S. increased significantly after 2010. While anthropogenic radiative forcing causes an acceleration of global mean SLR, regional changes in the rate of SLR are strongly influenced by internal variability. Here we use observations and climate models to show that the rapid increase in the rate of SLR along the U.S. Southeast Coast after 2010 is due in part to multidecadal buoyancy-driven Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) variations, along with heat transport convergence from wind-driven ocean circulation changes. We show that an initialized decadal prediction system can provide skillful regional SLR predictions induced by AMOC variations 5 years in advance, while wind-driven sea level variations are predictable 2 years in advance. Our results suggest that the rate of coastal SLR and its associated flooding risk along the U.S. southeastern seaboard are potentially predictable on multiyear timescales.

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Related Dataset #1 : Causes and multiyear predictability of the rapid acceleration of U.S. Southeast Sea level rise after 2010

Related Dataset #2 : Sea level measured by tide gauges from global oceans as part of the Joint Archive for Sea Level (JASL) since 1846

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Author Zhang, Liping
Delworth, T. L.
Yang, X.
Zeng, F.
Gu, Q.
Li, S.
Publisher UCAR/NCAR - Library
Publication Date 2024-05-24T00:00:00
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) Not Assigned
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Topic Category geoscientificInformation
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Metadata Date 2025-07-10T20:01:59.571295
Metadata Record Identifier edu.ucar.opensky::articles:27239
Metadata Language eng; USA
Suggested Citation Zhang, Liping, Delworth, T. L., Yang, X., Zeng, F., Gu, Q., Li, S.. (2024). Causes and multiyear predictability of the rapid acceleration of U.S. Southeast Sea level rise after 2010. UCAR/NCAR - Library. https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7qc07r6. Accessed 05 August 2025.

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