Future sea level change under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 and phase 6 scenarios from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets

Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GrIS and AIS) rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with the previous Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models to force multiple ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at 2100 from the ice sheet model ensemble under the CMIP6 scenarios falls within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly increased for Greenland. Warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models results in higher Greenland mass loss due to surface melt. For Antarctica, CMIP6 forcing is similar to CMIP5 and mass gain from increased snowfall counteracts increased loss due to ocean warming.

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Author Payne, Antony J.
Nowicki, Sophie
Abe‐Ouchi, Ayako
Agosta, Cécile
Alexander, Patrick
Albrecht, Torsten
Asay‐Davis, Xylar
Aschwanden, Andy
Barthel, Alice
Bracegirdle, Thomas J.
Calov, Reinhard
Chambers, Christopher
Choi, Youngmin
Cullather, Richard
Cuzzone, Joshua
Dumas, Christophe
Edwards, Tamsin L.
Felikson, Denis
Fettweis, Xavier
Galton‐Fenzi, Benjamin K.
Goelzer, Heiko
Gladstone, Rupert
Golledge, Nicholas R.
Gregory, Jonathan M.
Greve, Ralf
Hattermann, Tore
Hoffman, Matthew J.
Humbert, Angelika
Huybrechts, Philippe
Jourdain, Nicolas C.
Kleiner, Thomas
Munneke, Peter Kuipers
Larour, Eric
Le clec'h, Sebastien
Lee, Victoria
Leguy, Gunter
Lipscomb, William H.
Little, Christopher M.
Lowry, Daniel P.
Morlighem, Mathieu
Nias, Isabel
Pattyn, Frank
Pelle, Tyler
Price, Stephen F.
Quiquet, Aurélien
Reese, Ronja
Rückamp, Martin
Schlegel, Nicole‐Jeanne
Seroussi, Hélène
Shepherd, Andrew
Simon, Erika
Slater, Donald
Smith, Robin S.
Straneo, Fiammetta
Sun, Sainan
Tarasov, Lev
Trusel, Luke D.
Van Breedam, Jonas
Wal, Roderik
Broeke, Michiel
Winkelmann, Ricarda
Zhao, Chen
Zhang, Tong
Zwinger, Thomas
Publisher UCAR/NCAR - Library
Publication Date 2021-08-28T00:00:00
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Topic Category geoscientificInformation
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Metadata Date 2023-08-18T18:34:48.552167
Metadata Record Identifier edu.ucar.opensky::articles:24689
Metadata Language eng; USA
Suggested Citation Payne, Antony J., Nowicki, Sophie, Abe‐Ouchi, Ayako, Agosta, Cécile, Alexander, Patrick, Albrecht, Torsten, Asay‐Davis, Xylar, Aschwanden, Andy, Barthel, Alice, Bracegirdle, Thomas J., Calov, Reinhard, Chambers, Christopher, Choi, Youngmin, Cullather, Richard, Cuzzone, Joshua, Dumas, Christophe, Edwards, Tamsin L., Felikson, Denis, Fettweis, Xavier, Galton‐Fenzi, Benjamin K., Goelzer, Heiko, Gladstone, Rupert, Golledge, Nicholas R., Gregory, Jonathan M., Greve, Ralf, Hattermann, Tore, Hoffman, Matthew J., Humbert, Angelika, Huybrechts, Philippe, Jourdain, Nicolas C., Kleiner, Thomas, Munneke, Peter Kuipers, Larour, Eric, Le clec'h, Sebastien, Lee, Victoria, Leguy, Gunter, Lipscomb, William H., Little, Christopher M., Lowry, Daniel P., Morlighem, Mathieu, Nias, Isabel, Pattyn, Frank, Pelle, Tyler, Price, Stephen F., Quiquet, Aurélien, Reese, Ronja, Rückamp, Martin, Schlegel, Nicole‐Jeanne, Seroussi, Hélène, Shepherd, Andrew, Simon, Erika, Slater, Donald, Smith, Robin S., Straneo, Fiammetta, Sun, Sainan, Tarasov, Lev, Trusel, Luke D., Van Breedam, Jonas, Wal, Roderik, Broeke, Michiel, Winkelmann, Ricarda, Zhao, Chen, Zhang, Tong, Zwinger, Thomas. (2021). Future sea level change under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 and phase 6 scenarios from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. UCAR/NCAR - Library. http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7f76h1h. Accessed 25 June 2025.

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