Recent wetting trend over Taklamakan and Gobi Desert dominated by internal variability

The Taklamakan and Gobi Desert (TGD) region has experienced a pronounced increase in summer precipitation, including high-impact extreme events, over recent decades. Despite identifying large-scale circulation changes as a key driver of the wetting trend, understanding the relative contributions of internal variability and external forcings remains limited. Here, we approach this problem by using a hierarchy of numerical simulations, complemented by diverse statistical analysis tools. Our results offer strong evidence that the atmospheric internal variations primarily drive this observed trend. Specifically, recent changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation have redirected the storm track, leading to increased extratropical storms entering TGD and subsequently more precipitation. A clustering analysis further demonstrates that these linkages predominantly operate at the synoptic scale, with larger contributions from large precipitation events. Our analysis highlights the crucial role of internal variability, in addition to anthropogenic forcing, when seeking a comprehensive understanding of future precipitation trends in TGD.

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Author Dong, Wenhao
Ming, Y.
Deng, Y.
Shen, Z.
Publisher UCAR/NCAR - Library
Publication Date 2024-05-23T00:00:00
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Topic Category geoscientificInformation
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Metadata Date 2025-07-10T20:02:03.526124
Metadata Record Identifier edu.ucar.opensky::articles:27246
Metadata Language eng; USA
Suggested Citation Dong, Wenhao, Ming, Y., Deng, Y., Shen, Z.. (2024). Recent wetting trend over Taklamakan and Gobi Desert dominated by internal variability. UCAR/NCAR - Library. https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7st7v2f. Accessed 02 August 2025.

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