Skillful multiyear to decadal predictions of sea level in the North Atlantic Ocean and U.S. East Coast

Long-term sea-level rise and multiyear to decadal sea level variations pose substantial risks for flooding and erosion in coastal communities. Here we use observations and climate model predictions to show that sea level variations along the U.S. East Coast are skillfully predictable 3 to 10 years in advance. The most predictable component of sea level is a basin scale upward trend, predictable a decade in advance and primarily a response to increasing greenhouse gases. Significant additional predictability comes from multidecadal variations of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). While perfect model simulations show AMOC-related sea level predictability of 5-7 years, model biases and initialization uncertainties reduce the realized predictive skill to 3-5 years, depending on location. Overall, greenhouse gas warming and predictable AMOC variations lead to multiyear to decadal prediction skill for sea level along the U.S. East Coast. Such skill could have significant societal benefit for planning and adaptation.

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Related Dataset #1 : Sea level measured by tide gauges from global oceans as part of the Joint Archive for Sea Level (JASL) since 1846

Related JournalArticle #1 : Skillful multiyear to decadal predictions of sea level in the North Atlantic Ocean and U.S. East Coast

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Author Zhang, Liping
Delworth, T. L.
Yang, X.
Zeng, F.
Publisher UCAR/NCAR - Library
Publication Date 2023-11-17T00:00:00
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Topic Category geoscientificInformation
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Metadata Date 2025-07-11T15:12:38.380179
Metadata Record Identifier edu.ucar.opensky::articles:26772
Metadata Language eng; USA
Suggested Citation Zhang, Liping, Delworth, T. L., Yang, X., Zeng, F.. (2023). Skillful multiyear to decadal predictions of sea level in the North Atlantic Ocean and U.S. East Coast. UCAR/NCAR - Library. https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d77w6gqr. Accessed 05 August 2025.

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