Contrasting the roles of regional anthropogenic aerosols from the western and eastern hemispheres in driving the 1980-2020 Pacific multi-decadal variations

The multi-decadal variations in the Pacific climate are extensively discussed as being influenced by external forcings such as greenhouse gases (GHGs) and anthropogenic aerosols (AAs). Unlike GHGs, the potential impacts of AAs could be more complex because of the heterogeneity of spatial distribution during the past few decades. Here we show, using regional aerosol forcing large-ensemble simulations with the Community Earth System Model 1 (CESM1), that the increasing fossil-fuel-related aerosol emissions over Asia (EastFF) and the reduction in aerosol emissions over North America and Europe (WestFF) have remarkably different impacts on driving the Pacific circulations and sea surface temperature (SST) changes since the 1980s. EastFF excites a typical El Niño-like SST pattern in the tropical Pacific and weakens the climatological Pacific Walker circulation. WestFF induces a central Pacific (CP)-type El Niño-like SST pattern with warming in the middle region of the equatorial Pacific, which is consistent with the second leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) pattern of the observation. Over the North Pacific region, EastFF, located at low to middle latitudes, favors an Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO)-like SST pattern (horseshoe-like SST pattern in the North Pacific) through a teleconnection pathway between the tropical and extratropical Pacific but is overwhelmed by internal variability evolving from a positive phase to a negative IPO phase. In contrast, WestFF, located at middle to high latitudes, strongly affects the North Pacific via a west-to-east mid-latitude pathway and induces extensive warming. The competing effects of the heterogeneously distributed regional aerosol forcings are expected to exhibit different patterns in the near future, especially the redistribution of aerosol emissions within the domain of EastFF (i.e., from East Asia to South Asia) and changes in aerosol composition. The complex future changes in anthropogenic aerosol emissions are likely to introduce more profound impacts of aerosol forcing on the Pacific multi-decadal variations.